McKenna-Tavares-Nylander Line Got Outshot 19-3. Swap McKenna and Cowan

The McKenna-Tavares-Nylander line, in one number

The McKenna-Tavares-Nylander line was on the ice for 19 shot attempts against and three for in Wednesday's 2-1 win over the New York Islanders. That is not a bad shift or an unlucky period. That is a line spending a full game in its own end. Jim Hiller is keeping Gavin McKenna, John Tavares and William Nylander together for Saturday's game against the Ottawa Senators anyway, and he spent Friday explaining why.

Hiller said he talked to all three players separately after the Islanders game and that each of them already had the right answer. His diagnosis, as reported by TSN, was simple: get pucks deeper at certain times and play more in the offensive zone. He called that the big solution.

He is right about the symptom. LeafsLurker does not think he is right about the cure. Telling three puck-carriers to dump the puck in does not turn them into a forechecking line, and the Leafs already have the player who would fix this. He is on the third line, and Hiller does not want to move him.

Two games, two different problems

The second line's first two games did not fail in the same way, which is part of why Hiller is being patient.

On opening night against Montreal, the line produced. Nylander scored both Toronto goals in the 3-2 loss, the first 48 seconds in and the second with 4:14 left in regulation. McKenna played 15:19 in his NHL debut, had one shot, two giveaways and finished minus-2. We covered that night in our piece on McKenna's minus-2 debut and why nobody should panic, and that argument still holds for McKenna as an individual.

Against the Islanders, the line did not produce and did not defend. McKenna had one shot in 15:32. The 19-3 attempt split is the kind of number that usually belongs to a fourth line buried against an opponent's top unit, not to a second line built around William Nylander. Toronto won because the third line scored twice in the first period and Anthony Stolarz made 26 saves.

The quick comparison below shows how differently the lines have performed over the first two games.

LinePlayersTwo-game pictureFirstMarchenko-Matthews-RoslovicMarchenko added after the trade; first full practice FridaySecondMcKenna-Tavares-NylanderNylander two goals in opener; out-attempted 19-3 vs. IslandersThirdCowan-Paul-SissonsFive points; both goals vs. IslandersFourthDuhaime-Blueger-GroulxEnergy and defensive-zone minutes

Why the line keeps getting pinned

The structural issue is not hard to see. McKenna is an 18-year-old who wants the puck on his stick and creates off the rush. Nylander is the team's most dangerous shooter and the focal point of the offence. Tavares, at 36, plays a slower, possession game built around positioning and his hands in tight. All three are at their best with the puck. None of them is at his best chasing it.

That matters most on retrievals. When a line loses the first puck battle in the offensive zone, it has to defend. When it loses the first battle in its own zone, it has to defend again. A line without a natural retriever keeps losing those moments, and the attempt count piles up. Hockey writers covering the club have made the same observation this week: the line has no forechecker and no physical presence to create space.

Hiller's instruction to get pucks deep addresses the entry. It does not address who goes and gets the puck once it is down there. Asking McKenna to become a dump-and-chase winger in his third NHL game would also be asking him to play the one style that wastes what he does best.

The case for keeping it together tonight

There is a fair argument for patience, and Hiller is making it. Two games is a tiny sample. The opener was a game in which the line scored twice. The Islanders game was the second night of a back-to-back for a group that had played exactly one regular-season game together. And McKenna is inside the nine-game window that ends before the Oct. 19 game against San Jose, which means every shift he plays is also an evaluation. Moving him around every night muddies that evaluation.

Hiller's approach to the third line explains the rest. Asked about promoting Easton Cowan, he said there is a temptation to overthink things and change everything, and that sometimes you just say a line is good and keep it together. That is a coherent philosophy. It is also exactly why the second line is likely to get the Senators game, and probably the Nashville game on Tuesday, before anything changes.

We are fine with that. One more home game against an Ottawa team playing its season opener is a reasonable test. The question is what happens if the line spends another night in its own end.

The fix: swap Gavin McKenna and Easton Cowan

If the attempt numbers look like Wednesday's again, Hiller should swap McKenna and Cowan. Not demote McKenna to the fourth line, not scratch him, not send a message. Swap two left wingers so that each line gets what it is missing.

Cowan goes to the left side of Tavares and Nylander. He was Toronto's best player against the Islanders, and the reasons were all things the second line lacks: his forecheck forced the turnover that led to Colton Sissons' goal, and he was at the net to bang in the power-play rebound for the other one. He retrieves pucks, he wins battles below the goal line and he gets to the blue paint. Put that next to Nylander's shot and Tavares' hands and the line has a reason to spend time in the offensive zone instead of just being told to.

McKenna goes to the left side of Nick Paul and Colton Sissons. That is not a punishment. Paul and Sissons are two of the most defensively reliable forwards Chayka added, and they are exactly the type of linemates who win the puck back for a skilled winger. McKenna would get easier matchups, a centre who covers for him, and the puck more often. His power-play time on the second unit, where he has played with Cowan, Jack Roslovic, Paul and Morgan Rielly, would not change at all.

What Friedman's Cowan report adds

The other reason to give Cowan this look is organizational. Elliotte Friedman said on 32 Thoughts this week that Toronto's desire to move Cowan has really decreased, and that the club now sees him as a player. That is a remarkable turn for a winger who was left off the opening-night roster submission as part of an LTIR paperwork move. We argued in September that Chayka should not trade Cowan. The first two games made that case better than we did.

If the front office now sees Cowan as part of the core, the next step is finding out whether he can do in the top six what he has done on the third line. The second line is the place to find out, because it is the line with the clearest need for his skills. Cowan has a goal and two assists in two games, and the Paul-Sissons line has five points. A week of evidence on whether that translates to tougher minutes is worth more than a week of evidence that it works where it already works.

There is a risk, and it is the one Hiller is protecting against: breaking up the one line that is clearly working. But a third line can absorb a skilled rookie more easily than a second line can absorb a lack of retrieval. Paul and Sissons were signed to make life easy for whoever plays with them.

What's next for the Leafs' lines

The Leafs host Ottawa at 7 p.m. Saturday, then Nashville on Tuesday before a three-game western swing through Vegas, Colorado and Utah. That trip is where line matching gets harder, because Toronto loses last change and the second line will see more of the other team's top players. If the McKenna-Tavares-Nylander line is still getting out-attempted at home, it will be worse on the road.

So here is our marker. If the line wins its minutes against Ottawa and Nashville, Hiller was right and this column was early. If it gets pinned again, the swap should happen before the plane leaves for Las Vegas. Getting pucks deep is a good instruction. Putting a player on the line whose whole game is getting them back is a better one.

For the full depth chart, cap hits and contract terms behind every name in this column, see our Maple Leafs player pages and the contracts tracker.