Maple Leafs Second Line: Jim Hiller's Patience Needs a Deadline

Hiller keeps the Maple Leafs second line together

Jim Hiller did not blink. At practice on Monday, Oct. 5, two days after a 3-2 home loss to Ottawa dropped Toronto to 1-2-0, the head coach kept every line and every defence pair exactly as they were. That means the Maple Leafs second line of Gavin McKenna, John Tavares and William Nylander stays together for Tuesday's game against the Nashville Predators, despite three games of numbers that range from poor to alarming.

"You can only be patient for so long," Hiller told reporters, including TSN's Mark Masters. "But we'll stick with it for now."

That is a reasonable thing to say after three games. It is not a plan. The phrase that matters is "for now," and LeafsLurker's position is that the Leafs need to decide what "for now" actually means before the line costs them more points than it already has.

The lines Toronto will use against Nashville

Here is how the Leafs lined up at Monday's practice, unchanged from the Ottawa game:

LineLeft wingCentreRight wingFirstKirill MarchenkoAuston MatthewsJack RoslovicSecondGavin McKennaJohn TavaresWilliam NylanderThirdEaston CowanNick PaulColton SissonsFourthBrandon DuhaimeTeddy BluegerBo Groulx

The defence pairs did not change either:

PairLeftRightFirstJake McCabeChris TanevSecondMorgan RiellyDarren RaddyshThirdOliver Ekman-LarssonTroy Stecher

Hiller explained the thinking in terms of process. "I hope it just lets them know that, listen, the record right now is not exactly where we want it to be," he said, as reported by The Leafs Nation. "I would say I think we could have won all three games if things would have went a different way. So let's just work on our process."

What the numbers say after three games

The case against the line is not about goals. Nylander has two of them, both in the opener against Montreal, and three points, tied for the team lead. Tavares has two assists. The case is about everything else.

• Against the Islanders on Sept. 30, shot attempts were 19-3 for New York with the line on the ice, per TSN.
• Through three games, the line's five-on-five shot differential is minus-10, reported this week as 39th out of 40 lines tracked, and its slot shot differential of minus-8 is dead last.
• McKenna is minus-3; Tavares and Nylander are each minus-2, the worst marks on the team, per The Hockey News.

Hiller is not pretending otherwise. "That line probably could do it better than they have," he said Monday. His fix is specific: get the three players closer together in the offensive zone, win more battles, and get pucks to the dirty areas quicker. After the Islanders game he called getting pucks deeper and spending more time in the offensive zone "the big solution."

What the players are saying

Tavares and Nylander both asked for time. "There's no reason to panic or just hit that button, I guess, so to speak, extremely quick," Tavares told TSN on Oct. 5, adding that there are "some good underlying things" in the line's play. Nylander said the chemistry has shown up in practice and through training camp, and that "it takes some time."

Both are fair points, and Tavares has earned the benefit of the doubt. He played his 600th game as a Maple Leaf on Oct. 3, the 26th player in franchise history to get there. But the underlying numbers are precisely what is not good, and that is the problem with "give it time." Time helps a line that is generating chances and not finishing. This line is not generating much.

The power play is not the answer, yet

One way coaches get a struggling line going is to feed its players power-play time. That is already happening for two of the three. At Friday's practice on Oct. 2, Tavares worked the net front and Nylander a flank on the top unit, with Matthews on the other flank, Darren Raddysh at the point and Marchenko in the bumper. McKenna was on the second unit with Roslovic, Paul, Cowan and Rielly.

The top unit has produced: Marchenko's goal against Ottawa came on the power play. But a line cannot live on special teams, and the second line's problems are at five-on-five, where most of the game is played. Power-play success for Tavares and Nylander has not carried over, and it does not touch McKenna at all.

The McKenna question

McKenna is the variable. He is 18, he is listed at 164 pounds, and he is playing against grown men for the first time. Hiller said Monday that the rookie is still learning when to retreat, when to move the puck and when to lean on his linemates. "Those are just things that every player, their first time in the league, those are the things you got to work through," Hiller said, per The Hockey News.

That is all true, and it is the strongest argument for changing his role, not for keeping it. A first overall pick learning the league should be learning it in the most favourable minutes available. Right now, McKenna is on a line that is spending most of its shifts in its own end, beside a 36-year-old centre whose defensive game is not what it was. That is not sheltering him. It is exposing him. We made the case for swapping McKenna and Easton Cowan after the Islanders game, and one more loss has only strengthened it.

There is also the calendar. McKenna's entry-level contract situation gives the Leafs a nine-game decision window, which we covered in our McKenna nine-game window explainer. Every game he spends on a line that cannot get out of its zone is a game of evidence for a decision Toronto has to make soon.

Why Hiller is half right

Hiller's patience is not foolish. Coaches who shuffle lines every period after three games rarely build anything. And the third line he is protecting has earned its stability: Cowan had a goal and an assist against the Islanders and set up Nylander's late goal in the opener, while Sissons scored on a Nick Paul feed against New York. On Cowan's line, Hiller said, "We really like the line. Sometimes you can overthink things and change everything around," according to The Hockey News.

He is right not to break up something that works. He is wrong to treat the thing that does not work the same way. Consistency is a virtue for good lines. For a line that is 39th of 40, it is just inertia.

Our take: three more games, then move

Here is the deadline LeafsLurker would set. Give the line Nashville and the next two games. If its five-on-five shot share is still underwater in a meaningful way after six games, make the change: Cowan up to Tavares and Nylander, McKenna down to Paul and Sissons, where two responsible veterans can cover for him while he learns. It is a small move that protects the rookie, rewards the player who has earned it and costs the Leafs nothing in cap or assets.

If the line turns it around, great, and Hiller will have been right to wait. But "for now" cannot become October. The Leafs have scored six goals in three games and sit seventh in the Atlantic; you can track that on our standings page. A team that thin on offence cannot afford a second line that spends its shifts defending.

What's next

Toronto hosts Nashville at Scotiabank Arena on Oct. 6. Watch the second line's first two shifts: if McKenna, Tavares and Nylander are getting below the goal line and holding the puck there, Hiller's process is working. If they are breaking out of their own zone again, the deadline should come sooner. Our Predators preview has the full matchup.