Maple Leafs vs Predators Preview: Stamkos, Saros and Stick Discipline

Maple Leafs vs Predators: the essentials

The Maple Leafs vs Predators game on Tuesday, Oct. 6 at Scotiabank Arena (7 p.m. ET) is Toronto's last home date before a three-game western trip, and it arrives with the Leafs at 1-2-0 after Saturday's 3-2 loss to Ottawa. Nashville comes in at 1-1-0, fresh off a 2-1 home win over the Dallas Stars in which Steven Stamkos scored the 625th goal of his career.

Toronto is the start of a Canadian swing for the Predators, who visit Montreal on Oct. 8 and Ottawa on Oct. 10. For the Leafs, it is the last game at home before stops in Vegas on Oct. 8, Colorado on Oct. 10 and Utah on Oct. 13. Going west at 1-3 would be a very different trip from going west at 2-2.

Here is what Toronto is facing, and what has to change from the Ottawa game.

Nashville's first two games

The Predators opened at home against the Minnesota Wild on Oct. 1 and lost 3-1. Roman Josi scored Nashville's only goal, and Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt needed just 19 saves. Nick Foligno, Blake Coleman and Kirill Kaprizov scored for Minnesota.

Two nights later, Nashville beat Dallas 2-1. Miro Heiskanen scored for the Stars 47 seconds in, and then the Predators' power play took over. Stamkos one-timed a cross-slot feed from Ryan O'Reilly at 4:46 of the first period, and Nils Hoglander redirected a point shot at 15:49 for his first goal as a Predator. Nobody scored over the final 40 minutes, and Juuse Saros made 29 saves.

The table below sets the two teams' starts side by side.

TeamRecordGoals forGoals againstLast resultToronto Maple Leafs1-2-067L 3-2 vs. Ottawa, Oct. 3Nashville Predators1-1-034W 2-1 vs. Dallas, Oct. 3

Both teams have been playing tight, low-event hockey. Nashville has scored three goals in two games, and Toronto has scored exactly two in each of its three. Every one of Toronto's games has been decided by a single goal, and Nashville's two games have been decided by a combined three.

A new front office with familiar faces on the ice

The Predators changed their hockey operations leadership this summer. On June 2, Nashville hired Chris MacFarland as president of hockey operations and general manager. MacFarland spent 11 seasons with the Colorado Avalanche, the last four as general manager, and he replaced Barry Trotz, who had announced in February that he would step down once a successor was found and has moved into an advisory role. Andrew Brunette remains the head coach.

The roster, though, still leans on the veterans the previous regime brought in. Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and O'Reilly headline the forward group alongside Filip Forsberg, with Josi and Brady Skjei on the back end and Saros in goal. Hoglander, acquired from the Vancouver Canucks in an offseason trade, is one of the newer pieces.

Nashville missed the playoffs in 2025-26, and the question hanging over its season is whether MacFarland keeps this group together or moves veterans for futures. Josi's name came up in trade speculation through the summer. The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun reported this offseason that a Josi trade had more of a chance of happening than one might imagine, though nothing materialized. We explained why Toronto should not be chasing him in our piece on the top-four defenceman hunt.

Stamkos is still the threat

Stamkos's goal against Dallas tied him with Joe Sakic and Jarome Iginla for 17th on the NHL's all-time goals list, according to the Associated Press recap of the game. It was a vintage Stamkos goal, too: a one-timer from the left face-off dot on the power play, the shot he has been scoring with for nearly two decades.

For Toronto, that is the matchup to watch. The Predators went 2-for-3 on the power play against Dallas and scored both of their goals with the man advantage. The Leafs took two high-sticking minors in the third period against Ottawa, and the winning goal came as the first one expired. Jim Hiller called those penalties "really gross" after the game, per The Leafs Nation. Against a team whose best weapon is a one-timer on the power play, the discipline issue is not a talking point. It is the game plan.

Stamkos also has history in this building. He grew up in Markham, Ont., and spent most of his career facing Toronto as the captain of the Tampa Bay Lightning, including in playoff series against the Leafs. A visit to Scotiabank Arena is never just another road game for him.

Behind him, O'Reilly remains the matchup problem he has been for years: a centre who wins draws, kills penalties and makes the cross-ice pass that set up the Stamkos goal on Saturday. Toronto's centres, Auston Matthews included, will spend much of the night against him, and the faceoff circle in the defensive zone is where Nashville's power play starts.

What the Leafs need to fix

The Ottawa loss offered both encouragement and a warning. Toronto outshot the Senators 14-4 in the second period and hit the post six times by The Leafs Nation's count, but was outshot 16-5 in the third, according to Editor in Leaf. We covered the whole night in our Senators game breakdown.

Three things matter most against Nashville:

• Stay out of the box. The Predators' power play scored twice on three chances on Saturday. Giving Stamkos and O'Reilly two minutes of space is the fastest way to lose a low-scoring game.
• Get volume on Saros. Saros is one of the better goaltenders Toronto will see this month, and he just stopped 29 of 30 against Dallas. Two goals a night will not beat him. The Leafs have averaged about 27 shots per game, and we argued in our look at the Leafs' scoring problem that the volume has to rise.
• Fix the second line. Gavin McKenna, John Tavares and William Nylander have struggled to spend time in the offensive zone. Hiller has kept them together so far. A home game against a non-divisional opponent is a reasonable spot to try Easton Cowan in McKenna's place.

The goaltending decision

Hiller has not announced his starter for Tuesday. Sergei Bobrovsky has started two of the three games, against Montreal and Ottawa, stopping 47 of 53 shots. Anthony Stolarz made 26 saves on 27 shots in the 2-1 win over the Islanders on Sept. 30, which remains Toronto's only victory.

Toronto does not play back-to-back this week, with the road trip starting two nights later in Vegas, so there is no scheduling reason to favour either goaltender. Bobrovsky was better on Saturday than his numbers show, and none of Ottawa's three goals was a soft one. Stolarz has the stronger start statistically. Either choice is defensible. We laid out the bigger picture of the tandem in our Leafs goalie plan piece.

The verdict

This is a game Toronto should win. Nashville has scored three goals in two games and missed the playoffs last spring, and the Leafs are at home with a better roster on paper. But the Leafs said similar things before Ottawa, and the margins through three games have been one goal every night.

LeafsLurker's expectation: if Toronto stays out of the penalty box and gets more than 30 shots on Saros, it wins. If it gives Nashville three or four power plays, Stamkos will punish it, and the Leafs will head west below .500. Check the standings after Tuesday to see where that leaves Toronto in the Atlantic.