Maple Leafs Scoring Problem: Six Posts Aren't the Excuse, 27 Shots Are

The Maple Leafs scoring problem, in one line

The Maple Leafs scoring problem is now three games old and impossible to ignore: Toronto has scored exactly two goals in every game of the 2026-27 season. Two against Montreal on Sept. 29, two against the Islanders on Sept. 30 and two against Ottawa on Oct. 3. The result is a 1-2-0 record with all three games decided by one goal.

After the 3-2 loss to the Senators, Jim Hiller pointed to the iron. He said he did not love making excuses, but that somebody had told him the Leafs hit six or seven posts or crossbars, per Maple Leafs Hot Stove. The Leafs Nation counted six. Nobody is disputing the posts.

LeafsLurker's position is that the posts are the wrong thing to talk about. Bad luck explains one night. Three straight two-goal games, with a lineup built to win by outscoring people, point to something structural: Toronto is not generating enough volume, and too little of it is coming from the players paid to finish.

Three games, six goals

Here is the full scoring picture through three games. Shot totals are worked out from each opposing goaltender's save total plus Toronto's goals.

DateOpponentResultLeafs shotsLeafs scorersSept. 29Montreal CanadiensL 3-227William Nylander (2)Sept. 30New York IslandersW 2-126Colton Sissons, Easton Cowan (PP)Oct. 3Ottawa SenatorsL 3-229Auston Matthews, Kirill Marchenko (PP)TotalThree games1-2-082Six goals, two on the power play

That is 27.3 shots per game and a 7.3 per cent shooting percentage. Neither number is a disaster on its own. Together, they describe a team that is roughly breaking even on shots (Toronto has allowed 80 through three games) and relying on its goaltenders to stretch thin margins into wins. That is not what this roster was built to do.

Look at who is scoring, too. Nylander has two. Matthews, Marchenko, Sissons and Cowan have one each. The third line has carried as much of the load as the first two, and the Islanders win came entirely from Sissons and Cowan in the first period.

Why the posts are a distraction

Posts are real and they are random. A team that hits six in a game was generating dangerous looks, and the Leafs Nation reported that Toronto held about 72 per cent of five-on-five expected goals through two periods against Ottawa. Over a full season, a team creating chances like that will score more than two a night.

But that second period was the outlier, not the trend. The second line spent most of the Islanders game in its own end, on the wrong side of a 19-3 shot-attempt split. Against Montreal, Nylander scored both goals and the rest of the lineup had none. And against Ottawa, Toronto managed five shots in the third period while being outshot 16-5, according to Editor in Leaf. A team that wins on volume does not have five-shot periods in tied games at home.

Hiller's own diagnosis after the Islanders game, as reported by TSN, was that his struggling second line needs to get pucks deeper and play more in the offensive zone. That is the volume argument in different words. He knows the posts are not the whole story either.

The structural problem: where the shots are coming from

This roster was rebuilt in a hurry. Matthew Knies was traded to Columbus for Marchenko on Sept. 29, the same day as the opener. Gavin McKenna, the first overall pick in 2026, is three games into his NHL career. Marchenko joined the first power-play unit without a full practice. The top six has not had time to become a top six.

That is a fair explanation, but it also tells you where the fix is. Toronto's forwards are skilled carriers who like to make the extra play, and in a three-game sample the extra play is not getting to the net. The players who have scored have mostly done it from the paint: Matthews on a deflection in the slot, Marchenko stepping in on his backhand, Cowan on a power-play rebound, Sissons on a redirection. The goals are coming from the hard areas. The Leafs simply need more trips there.

Matthews needs to be the volume

Matthews scored his first of the season against Ottawa, and the top line of Marchenko, Matthews and Jack Roslovic had its best game. That line has to become the engine. Matthews has always been at his best when he is shooting from everywhere, and Hiller has talked since camp about giving him more freedom in the offensive zone. That freedom needs to show up as shot attempts, not just possession.

The second line is the real drag

We have already made the case in detail for swapping McKenna and Cowan on the second and third lines, so we will not repeat all of it. The short version is that McKenna-Tavares-Nylander is three puck-carriers and no retriever, and Cowan is the forechecker who would turn that line into one that plays in the offensive zone. Three games in, nothing has changed our mind. If anything, Cowan's start has strengthened the argument.

The power play is two-for-three games

Toronto has two power-play goals in three games, one from each unit. The top unit of Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Marchenko and Darren Raddysh finally scored against Ottawa, going 1-for-4 on the night. Daniel Alfredsson was brought in to fix a unit that has underperformed its talent for years, and we covered his priorities in our look at the Alfredsson power play. Three games is not enough to judge him, but a team that is scoring two a night cannot afford a top unit that only cashes once in three games.

What would actually change the trend

Here is what LeafsLurker would do before Tuesday's game against Nashville. None of it is radical.

• Promote Cowan to the second line and move McKenna to the third line with Nick Paul and Sissons, where he would face easier matchups and play with two forecheckers.
• Keep the top line together. Marchenko-Matthews-Roslovic was Toronto's best line against Ottawa and needs more than one game to settle.
• Simplify the first power-play unit's entry and shot selection. More point shots with traffic, fewer seam passes. Both power-play goals this season came from players at the net.
• Stop taking stick penalties. The two third-period high-sticking minors against Ottawa cost Toronto four minutes of a tied period, and the winner came as the first one expired.

The verdict

Three games is a tiny sample. Toronto's shooting percentage will almost certainly rise, and the posts will eventually start going in. If the Leafs keep playing like they did in the second period against Ottawa, the scoring will come.

But this is a team with Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Marchenko and McKenna up front, and through three games Matthews has the same number of goals as third-liners Sissons and Cowan. Nylander's two goals on opening night are the only multi-goal performance on the team. That is not a scoring distribution a contender can live with for long, especially with a three-game western road trip to Vegas, Colorado and Utah coming next week. The Leafs cannot plan around luck turning. They have to create enough volume that luck stops mattering, and that starts with how Hiller builds his lines. The posts are a reason to be patient. They are not a reason to stand still.

For the full scoring and ice-time picture, see our Maple Leafs player stats page, and for how the early results shake out in the Atlantic, check the standings.