Maple Leafs vs Sharks Preview: Toronto Needs This One Before a Tough Week

Maple Leafs vs Sharks: the essentials

The Maple Leafs vs Sharks game on Monday, Oct. 19 at Scotiabank Arena (7:30 p.m. ET) is the first of four games in six nights for a Toronto team that needs a win badly. The Leafs are 3-4-2, have lost three straight and four of their last five, and sit at the bottom of the Atlantic Division after a 4-1 home loss to the New York Islanders on Oct. 17.

The opponent looks like a get-right game on paper. San Jose arrives 4-3-1 without a regulation win: every one of its four victories has come in overtime or a shootout. The Sharks are also coming off a 4-3 shootout loss in Detroit on Oct. 17, their third loss in four games, and Field Level Media's preview noted it was the fourth time this season they have blown a two-goal lead in the third period.

That is the case for optimism. The case for caution is that the same preview credits San Jose with winning the last four meetings between these teams, and that Macklin Celebrini is in the building.

Where the Leafs stand after three straight losses

The loss to the Islanders was the kind that stings more than the score suggests. Toronto outshot New York 29-20, and the Islanders finished the night with only 10 forwards after losing two in the first period. Colton Sissons scored the only Leafs goal, and Toronto's top six forwards did not record a point. We broke down the game in our Islanders recap; the short version is that Ilya Sorokin saw almost everything coming from the outside.

Jim Hiller's postgame line was blunt. He said the Islanders "could have their full lineup in there, and our lack of fortitude to get to the inside makes it disappointing in any case." Auston Matthews, speaking the same night, put the blame on the skaters and the veterans rather than the goaltending, and said the group had another level to show.

The record by goalie tells part of that story. Sergei Bobrovsky is 1-3-2 with a .891 save percentage and a 3.29 goals-against average, and Matthews said after the Islanders game that the team had "left him out to dry" in his recent starts. Anthony Stolarz is 2-1-0 in three starts. The skaters in front of both have not been good enough in their own end, and the Atlantic standings show how little room that leaves this early.

The Sharks: dangerous, young and leaky late

San Jose is a different team from the one that finished at the bottom of the league two seasons ago. Celebrini, the first overall pick in 2024, is in his third NHL season and has driven the Sharks' offence again. He had a goal and two assists, both of the assists on the power play, in the shootout loss in Detroit, his fourth multi-point game of the season per Field Level Media. One quirk worth noting: he is still looking for his first career goal against Toronto.

Projected lineups from San Jose Hockey Now and NHL.com have Celebrini centring Igor Chernyshov and Will Smith, which gives the Sharks a top line that can hurt a team on the rush. That should concern Toronto more than anything else on the scouting report. Rush defence has been a recurring problem for the Leafs this month, and we wrote about it in detail after the second-period collapses earlier in October.

The Sharks' weakness is closing. Blowing four two-goal third-period leads in eight games points to a team that still struggles to manage a game once it is ahead. If Toronto can stay within a goal through 40 minutes, the third period should favour the home team.

Projected goalies and the injury report

Neither starter had been confirmed as of Monday morning. With Bobrovsky in net on Saturday and a road game in Columbus on Tuesday, Daily Faceoff projected Stolarz for Toronto. San Jose was projected to start Alex Nedeljkovic, who has been the better of its two goalies so far.

The projected goalie numbers going into the game, per the preview data published Monday:

Toronto is still without John Tavares, who is week-to-week with a lower-body injury suffered in the Oct. 15 overtime loss to Buffalo; we covered how Hiller is filling the hole at centre. Chris Tanev remains on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, William Villeneuve is on IR after knee surgery, and Miles Wood was also placed on IR. For San Jose, forward Quentin Musty is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury.

Gavin McKenna vs Macklin Celebrini

There is a subplot here beyond the standings. This is a meeting of two first-overall picks: Celebrini from 2024 and Gavin McKenna, whom Toronto took first in 2026. NHL.com's running McKenna Watch flagged the matchup this week, and it is a useful measuring stick for where McKenna is nine games in.

McKenna's response to being benched for part of the Buffalo game was encouraging. He played a season-high 17:56 against the Islanders, including 8:18 in the third period, and put four shots on goal. He also finished minus-2 without a point, and his power-play work was uneven. We argued after the benching that Hiller should keep playing him, and Saturday's minutes suggest the coach agrees.

The comparison with Celebrini is not about who is better today. Celebrini is two years further along and plays centre. It is about what a first-overall pick looks like once the NHL slows down for him, and Monday is a chance to see that up close.

What to watch

• Inside ice: Hiller's "fortitude" comment was about getting to the net. Count the Leafs' shots from the slot and the crease, not the total. Toronto won the shot count on Saturday and lost the game.
• The top six: Toronto's top six forwards, Matthews and William Nylander included, were all held off the scoresheet against the Islanders. Against a Sharks team that has given up late leads, the top line needs to drive play rather than wait for it.
• The first 10 minutes of the third: San Jose has struggled to protect leads late. If the game is close entering the third, Toronto's depth has to push.
• Special teams: Celebrini's two power-play assists in Detroit are a warning. The Leafs' penalty kill was a strength early in the season and needs to be again.

What's next: a week that sets the tone

The schedule does not let up. After the Sharks, Toronto plays in Columbus on Tuesday, Oct. 20, its first meeting with Matthew Knies since the Marchenko trade. The Leafs then host the New York Rangers on Thursday, Oct. 22 before visiting Edmonton on Saturday, Oct. 24.

That stretch matters for more than the standings. Elliotte Friedman reported on Oct. 17 that Toronto is willing to spend a premium asset on a difference-maker on defence, and that the club intends to play through this week before deciding how hard to push. The results against San Jose, Columbus, New York and Edmonton will shape that decision.

LeafsLurker's view: this is the game Toronto has to win. A team with no regulation wins, coming off another blown lead in Detroit and with a habit of fading late, is the right opponent to end a three-game skid against. Losing to the Sharks at home would turn a slow start into a real problem, with the hardest games of the week still to come.