Gavin McKenna vs Ivar Stenberg: Round One Says Toronto Picked Right

Gavin McKenna vs Ivar Stenberg: the take

The first Gavin McKenna vs Ivar Stenberg meeting went to Toronto. McKenna, the first overall pick in June, scored the go-ahead power-play goal at 4:56 of the third period in the Maple Leafs' 3-1 win over San Jose on Oct. 19. Stenberg, taken second by the Sharks, finished minus-1 with one shot in 14:27. One game does not settle a draft, but this one supported the bet Toronto made in June: it took the right player.

That is not a knock on Stenberg. He is a good young player and came into Monday ahead of McKenna in rookie scoring. The argument for McKenna has never been about who has more points in October. It is about which player can decide a game, and on Monday only one of them did.

The timing gave it extra weight. It was McKenna's 10th NHL game, the one that used the first year of his entry-level contract, after a week in which his coach had sat him for the last half of a game.

The numbers after the first meeting

Here is where the two rookies stand after Monday, with their draft-year numbers for context. Stenberg's NHL line assumes no point on Monday, consistent with the box-score details reported.

Six points each. Stenberg has done it in one fewer game and with more assists, which reflects how quickly he has fit into San Jose's lineup. McKenna has done it while being moved around the lineup, kept off the ice in overtime and, in one game against Buffalo, held to 6:36 of ice time.

The draft-year numbers tell a similar story. McKenna's 51 points were the most ever by a Penn State freshman and his 36 assists set a program single-season record. Stenberg's 33 points ranked fifth all-time for an 18-year-old in the SHL, per NHL.com, which is an excellent number in a men's league. Both are elite. They are elite in different ways.

Why Monday mattered

The goal itself was the argument. With the score 1-1 and the Leafs on the power play, McKenna took a Matthews feed, worked into the slot and beat Yaroslav Askarov. It was his first career power-play goal, and Heavy noted he became the first 18-year-old Maple Leaf to score one since Vincent Damphousse in December 1986.

Jim Hiller's reaction was the second part. "He's just not afraid of the moment, and he enjoys the moment," the coach said, per The Hockey News. That is the trait scouts kept coming back to in McKenna's draft year, and it is the hardest one to teach. Plenty of teenagers have skill. Fewer want the puck with the game tied in the third.

Stenberg's night was quieter, and it should be described fairly. He played 14:27 as a 19-year-old on the road and was not the reason San Jose lost. But in a head-to-head that both fan bases had circled, he did not leave a mark on the game.

The case for Stenberg, taken seriously

The pre-draft debate was real. TSN's final ranking had McKenna narrowly ahead, and The Hockey Writers published a piece arguing Stenberg had passed him. The scouting case for Stenberg rested on his two-way game, his strength on the puck and a season spent against men in Sweden. One pre-draft scouting view, reported by San Jose Hockey Now, was that teams might end up more worried about McKenna's ceiling than they were confident in Stenberg's two-way game.

That is a legitimate way to value players. A No. 2 pick who is reliable without the puck from day one helps a team in ways that do not show up in October point totals, and Stenberg's early assists suggest he is already playing a connective role in San Jose.

But a first overall pick is a bet on ceiling. Toronto did not win the lottery to add a dependable middle-six forward. It won the lottery to add a player who can eventually drive a line, a power play and a playoff series. McKenna's power-play winner was a glimpse of that ceiling. You can teach a skilled teenager to backcheck. It is much harder to teach a responsible one to create the goal that McKenna scored on Monday.

Burning the first contract year was the right call

Playing McKenna in his 10th game had a cost. The first year of his three-year entry-level deal is now used, which means he will be a restricted free agent after 2028-29 instead of a year later. His cap hit is $1.075 million, per our contracts page, and his second contract will cost many times that. We laid out the trade-off before the season in our explainer on McKenna's nine-game window.

Toronto made the right decision. A team that missed the playoffs last spring and is sitting near the bottom of the Atlantic does not have the luxury of saving a top-six forward for later. McKenna is already one of the club's better offensive players. The alternatives, a seat in the press box or a season away from the NHL, would have done his development and the team's results no favours.

There is also a simpler point. If McKenna becomes the player Toronto thinks he is, a year of cost certainty matters less than the years of his best hockey. Teams that build around a star pay for him eventually. The Leafs should be thrilled if that bill comes due early.

What Hiller has to do now

The coach has been the story around McKenna as often as McKenna has. He kept McKenna on the bench for the overtime periods against Nashville and Vegas, and sat him for the final half of the Oct. 15 loss to Buffalo, then said the decision was his and he should have used him in the third. We called that Hiller's first real mistake at the time.

Monday showed the alternative. McKenna on the power play with Matthews and Nylander produced the winning goal. The next step is trusting him at three-on-three, where skill and nerve matter more than anywhere else. A player who wants the puck in a tied third period should be on the ice in overtime, and Toronto, with two losses past regulation already, cannot afford to keep one of its most creative players on the bench.

We have also argued that he should stay on the first power-play unit when John Tavares returns. Monday's goal makes that case stronger.

What's next

The two rookies will be compared for as long as they play. The Sharks and Leafs meet again later this season, and Calder Trophy voting will force a side-by-side next spring. Stenberg may well finish this season with more points, and if he does, it will not change the case for McKenna.

Toronto's next chance to build on Monday comes in Columbus on Oct. 20, followed by the Rangers on Oct. 22 and the Oilers on Oct. 24. McKenna's role in those games, and especially his overtime usage, will say more about Hiller's trust than anything said in a press conference. Follow his progress on our player pages and revisit how the pick came together in our draft hub.

Round one goes to Toronto. That is all one game can tell anyone, and it is enough for now.