Dylan Larkin Trade List Hits 10 Teams: Leafs and All of Canada Left Off

Dylan Larkin trade list grows to 10 teams, and Toronto is not on it

The Dylan Larkin trade list has finally grown, and the Maple Leafs are still not on it. Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press reported on Oct. 21 that the Red Wings centre has expanded the list of teams he would accept a trade to from three to 10. The original three, Florida, Minnesota and Vegas, are joined by Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, New Jersey, Tampa Bay, Utah and Washington.

Not one Canadian team made the cut. That was the expectation for weeks. TSN's Darren Dreger said in mid-October that he believed Montreal would pay Detroit's price but did not see Larkin putting the Canadiens on his list, and one source told reporters this week that Larkin does not want to go to a Canadian team. Now it is on paper. Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa and the four western Canadian clubs are all on the outside.

For the Leafs, this matters less as a missed opportunity than as a map. Two Atlantic Division rivals, Florida and Tampa Bay, are now approved destinations for a 30-year-old centre who has scored 30 goals multiple times. Where Larkin lands will change the division Toronto has to climb out of, and Toronto has no way to stop it.

The full list: who Larkin will accept

Here is the expanded list as reported by the Free Press and matched by several outlets citing that report, with the division each team plays in:

Five of the 10 teams are in the Eastern Conference. Two are in Toronto's division. The pattern is plain: warm-weather or American markets, mostly contenders, no Canadian clubs.

Why Larkin controls where he goes

Larkin asked out in June after Detroit missed the playoffs for a 10th straight season, and the Red Wings stripped him of the captaincy on Sept. 11. What has kept him in Detroit since is his contract. He is in the fourth season of an eight-year, $69.6 million deal signed in 2023, with an $8.7 million cap hit that runs through 2030-31.

That deal carries a full no-trade clause through 2027-28, according to reported contract details, before it converts to a 10-team list for the final three seasons. In plain terms, nothing happens this season without Larkin's signature, and the Red Wings can only trade with the teams he names. Until this week, that meant three teams. Interim GM Shawn Horcoff now has 10 phone numbers instead of three.

The expansion helps Detroit more than it helps anyone else. A three-team list is not a market. A 10-team list, with several contenders that have prospects and picks, at least lets Horcoff run something resembling an auction.

Detroit's asking price, per Dreger

The price has not dropped. Darren Dreger reported in mid-October that Detroit wants three or four pieces: two A-level prospects, a forward who can play in a team's top nine right away, and a first-round pick. That is a softer ask than the summer version, when the Red Wings reportedly wanted a first-line centre back, but it is still a heavy package.

Dreger also said some clubs would pay it, and specifically that he believed Montreal would. That was the context for our earlier piece on why Montreal was the Leafs' worst-case landing spot for Larkin, written after the Bell Centre crowd chanted for him on Oct. 10. The new list closes that door, at least for this season. The Canadiens can want Larkin all they like. Without his approval, they cannot get him.

That is the first piece of good news for Toronto in this saga. The second is that several of the teams on the list will struggle to build Detroit's package. Florida spent its 2026 first-rounders and a conditional 2029 first to land Brady Tkachuk from Ottawa in June. Dallas, Vegas and Minnesota have been described in at least one widely shared analysis as thin on A-level prospects. A long list is not the same thing as a long list of realistic buyers.

The Atlantic problem: Florida and Tampa Bay

The two teams on the list that should worry Leafs fans most are the two in their division.

Florida Panthers

Florida was on Larkin's list from the start, and the need is obvious. Aleksander Barkov was hurt on Oct. 1 against San Jose, and Panthers coach Paul Maurice said on Oct. 6 that the captain would miss six to eight weeks without needing surgery. We looked at what that injury did to the division in our piece on the Barkov injury and the Larkin domino. Florida needs a centre now and will still want one when Barkov returns.

The problem for Florida is the asset cupboard after the Tkachuk deal, and a cap sheet that already carries both Tkachuk brothers. If Bill Zito finds a way, though, the Panthers would add a two-way centre to a team that has been to three straight Stanley Cup Finals. That is the scenario Toronto should least want. Florida eliminated the Leafs in the playoffs in 2023 and again in 2025, and won the Stanley Cup in both 2024 and 2025.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay is the new name, and in some ways the more plausible one. Julien BriseBois has a long record of finding a trade structure when everyone else says the Lightning cannot afford something. A Larkin behind Brayden Point would make Tampa Bay much tougher to play against in a seven-game series, and the Leafs have already met the Lightning in the playoffs twice this decade.

Why the Leafs could not have done this anyway

Being left off the list stings, but it does not cost Toronto much. The Maple Leafs were never a realistic fit for an $8.7 million centre this season.

Start with the cap. Toronto's sheet, per our Maple Leafs contracts page, has about $7 million in space with Max Domi, Dakota Joshua and Elvis Merzlikins on long-term injured reserve. Larkin's cap hit is larger than that, and taking him on would mean sending real salary back to a Detroit team that wants futures, not veterans.

Then look at the assets. Toronto's own 2027 first is owed to Boston and its 2028 first to Philadelphia, as tracked on our Leafs draft-pick page. The one tradeable first-round pick in the next two drafts is Colorado's 2027 first. Elliotte Friedman reported this week that John Chayka has told teams Toronto will spend a premium asset on a difference-making defenceman, and that the Leafs are reluctant to trade Easton Cowan. You cannot spend the same Colorado pick twice. Defence is the bigger hole, as our premium-asset report laid out.

The honest case for a centre is John Tavares' lower-body injury, which has him on injured reserve and week-to-week. That is a short-term hole, and Larkin is a five-season commitment. Those are different problems.

LeafsLurker's take: root for the West

Toronto cannot get Larkin, but it can have a preference about where he goes. Ranked by how much each landing spot would hurt the Leafs:

• Worst: Florida or Tampa Bay. A top-six centre added to a division rival Toronto has to get past in the regular season and, in the current playoff format, very likely in the first two rounds.
• Bad: Carolina, New Jersey or Washington. Conference rivals Toronto might face in the second or third round.
• Fine: Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Utah or Vegas. Western teams Toronto sees twice a year and could only meet in the Stanley Cup Final.

The best outcome for the Leafs is Larkin in a Mammoth or Wild jersey. The worst is Larkin centring Florida's second line by American Thanksgiving. The list is now long enough that both are possible.

What's next

The list expansion is the first real movement on Larkin since the summer, and it follows mid-October reports that a deal could come together quickly once the list widened. Watch three things:

• Florida's response. With Barkov on LTIR, the Panthers have the cap room to act now that they will not have when he returns.
• Simon Edvinsson. Detroit is also fielding calls on its unsigned defenceman, and a team that wants both players gives Horcoff the bigger negotiation. We covered Horcoff's stance in our Edvinsson piece from Oct. 15.
• The Atlantic standings. Detroit itself is an Atlantic team. Whatever comes back for Larkin changes the Red Wings, too. Keep an eye on the current NHL standings.

The Leafs are spectators here. It is still a story they need to watch, because the answer will be sitting across from them in the spring.