Dylan Larkin Trade: Why Montreal Is the Leafs' Worst-Case Landing Spot

The Dylan Larkin trade question, after one night in Montreal

The Dylan Larkin trade saga picked up a new subplot on Oct. 10, when the Bell Centre crowd chanted "We want Larkin" at the Detroit Red Wings centre from his first shifts of a 1-0 Canadiens shootout win. Larkin, who asked out of Detroit in the summer, said afterward he had never imagined hearing that in Montreal and called the building's atmosphere the best in hockey, while stressing that he is still a Red Wing. On his 32 Thoughts podcast that weekend, Elliotte Friedman said that he would not call a Montreal deal the most likely outcome, but would not rule it out either.

For Maple Leafs fans, this is not someone else's soap opera. A 30-year-old, multiple-time 30-goal centre is about to change teams, and where he lands will shift the balance of the Atlantic Division. LeafsLurker's position is simple: Toronto should be rooting for Larkin to go west, and Montreal is the worst realistic landing spot for the Leafs.

How Larkin got here

The request first surfaced on June 4. On June 27, then-GM Steve Yzerman confirmed that Larkin's agent had given Detroit a short list of teams he would accept. Yzerman was removed as GM on July 15, Shawn Horcoff took over as interim GM on Sept. 15, and Larkin was stripped of the captaincy before camp. He was booed at Detroit's home opener while on injured reserve, then returned to the lineup still under contract and still asking to leave.

The contract is the reason he controls where he goes. Larkin signed an eight-year, $69.6 million extension in March 2023, and it carries an $8.7 million cap hit through 2030-31 with a full no-trade clause. Here are the key terms:

TermDetailTotal value$69.6 million over eight yearsCap hit$8.7 millionSignedMarch 2023Runs through2030-31 (five seasons including this one)Trade protectionFull no-trade clause

Detroit is now dealing with two unhappy core players at once. Simon Edvinsson, the unsigned 23-year-old defenceman, would also prefer a trade, and Utah and Boston are reported as the leaders in that race. We covered that market, and why the Leafs should let it go, in our Edvinsson trade analysis.

The game itself told you why the moment landed. It was scoreless through 65 minutes, with Detroit's Daniil Tarasov and Montreal's Jacob Fowler trading saves, and it went six rounds deep into a shootout before Zachary Bolduc beat Tarasov for the only goal of the night. Larkin got a shootout attempt and Fowler stopped it. A centre who drives possession and kills penalties stood out in a game decided by inches, and the crowd noticed.

Detroit's leverage is limited by the same clause that gives Larkin control. The Red Wings want a package that helps them now, not just picks, and Seravalli has suggested that few teams can meet that price while also being on Larkin's list. That is the gap Montreal is trying to close from the outside.

Where Larkin is willing to go

The list has moved. Larkin's original short list reportedly included Minnesota, Florida and Vegas, and it has since expanded. Friedman has mentioned Colorado, Washington, Dallas and Tampa Bay as teams that could fit, and Frank Seravalli has reported that the list does not include any Canadian franchise. Darren Dreger said in late September that he did not see Larkin changing his position on Canadian teams.

That is what makes the Montreal noise interesting. Seravalli has reported that the Canadiens have the assets to meet Detroit's asking price, and Friedman has said Montreal is genuinely willing to pay. The obstacle is not the Habs or the Red Wings. It is Larkin's signature. Friedman's position is that until it is an absolute no, he would never say never. That is not a prediction. It is a door that is not quite shut.

Why Montreal is the worst outcome for Toronto

Montreal is the Atlantic team with the longest runway. The Canadiens are 2-2-1 so far, and their young core is the reason they are a threat over the next five years rather than the next five weeks. What they have been missing is a proven second-line centre who can take hard matchups and push Nick Suzuki's line into easier minutes. Larkin is exactly that player, and his $8.7 million cap hit through 2030-31 lines up almost perfectly with the years Montreal's young players will be at their best.

Toronto sees Montreal several times every season and could easily meet them in a playoff round. Adding Larkin would give the Canadiens two legitimate top-six centres to throw at Auston Matthews and John Tavares, and a veteran who has worn a captain's letter in a dressing room that is still learning how to win. That makes a direct rival better in exactly the way the Leafs would least like.

The other Atlantic landing spots

Florida and Tampa Bay are both on Larkin's reported lists, and both are division rivals. Florida's case is the most immediate. Aleksander Barkov is on long-term injured reserve and expected to miss six to eight weeks, as we covered in our Atlantic injury roundup, and we first flagged the Barkov-Larkin connection in our Barkov injury piece. A healthy Barkov plus Larkin would make Florida deeper down the middle than anyone in the division.

Still, Florida and Tampa Bay are older teams built to win now. Larkin would extend their windows, but he would not create a new one. Montreal is the only Atlantic suitor where Larkin would help turn a rising team into a contender for most of the next five seasons.

The best outcome for the Leafs

The ideal result for Toronto is boring: Larkin goes to Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota or Vegas, and Detroit gets young assets back that will not help it for two or three years. That takes a top-line centre out of the division entirely and keeps the Red Wings in reset mode. Washington is fine too, from a Toronto perspective, since the Capitals play in the Metropolitan.

Detroit's slide is already helping. A Red Wings team without its best centre and possibly without its best young defenceman is one fewer Atlantic club in the playoff race. That matters for a Leafs team that came into tonight's game in Utah at 3-2-1, with Chris Tanev on injured reserve. The tighter the middle of the division gets, the more each of those decisions matters. Track how it is shaking out on our NHL standings page.

Should the Leafs be in on Larkin themselves?

No, and it is not close. Toronto's centre spots are Matthews, Tavares, Nick Paul and Teddy Blueger, and the money is committed elsewhere. Kirill Marchenko's $12.5 million extension starts next season, and the Leafs already have about $109.8 million on next year's books against a projected $113.5 million cap, per our contracts page. Larkin also reportedly does not want to play in Canada. Even if Toronto had the room, Larkin is not available to it.

The Leafs' interest here is purely about where he goes, which makes this one of the rare trade sagas where Toronto's best move is to watch.

What's next

Nothing is imminent. Larkin is playing, Detroit is still asking for a price that Seravalli says only some teams can meet, and the no-trade clause means Larkin decides who those teams are. Watch for two signals. The first is whether the list adds a Canadian team, since Montreal would immediately become the favourite. The second is Barkov's recovery timeline, because the longer it stretches, the more aggressive Florida could be. For Toronto, every option that keeps Larkin out of the Atlantic is a win, and the one that puts him in a Canadiens jersey is the one to fear.