Simon Edvinsson Trade: Utah Leads, and the Leafs Should Let Them Win

The Simon Edvinsson trade race, as of Oct. 13

The Simon Edvinsson trade market has a frontrunner, and it is not Toronto. Frank Seravalli has described the Utah Mammoth as the clear frontrunner to pry the 23-year-old defenceman out of Detroit, Pierre LeBrun reported on Oct. 8 that the Boston Bruins had moved to the front of a list of at least 10 interested teams, and David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reported on Oct. 11 that the Red Wings have started real talks with several clubs. The Maple Leafs are on that list. They should be comfortable staying a step behind.

That is LeafsLurker's position, and it is a change of emphasis from where we started. When word first broke that Edvinsson would prefer a trade, we asked whether the Leafs should make the call. They should have, and reportedly did. But the price is now coming into focus, and it is a price that fits Utah's cap far better than Toronto's.

Tonight adds a strange wrinkle. The Leafs play in Salt Lake City against the team most likely to land the player Toronto has been linked with for two weeks. We previewed the game in our Leafs vs. Mammoth preview.

How Detroit got here

Edvinsson is a restricted free agent who never signed. Detroit drafted him sixth overall in 2021, and he became a top-pair, minutes-eating left shot over the last two seasons. Contract talks stalled over the summer, and the situation got messier when the Red Wings removed Steve Yzerman as general manager on July 15. Assistant GM Shawn Horcoff was named interim GM on Sept. 15, and he has been running both the Edvinsson file and the Dylan Larkin trade request since.

Edvinsson took part in training camp unsigned, then went back to Sweden when camp ended and has been skating with his former club, Frölunda. On Oct. 3, Elliotte Friedman reported that the word around the league was that Edvinsson would prefer a trade. Pagnotta has since said he does not believe a formal demand has been made, but the preference is clear enough that Detroit is now listening.

The timeline matters because each step has pushed the price in a predictable direction:

DateDevelopmentReported byJuly 15Steve Yzerman removed as GM, moves to senior adviserRed WingsSept. 15Shawn Horcoff named interim GMRed WingsOct. 3Edvinsson would prefer a tradeElliotte FriedmanOct. 8Boston near the front of at least 10 interested teamsPierre LeBrunOct. 9-10Utah described as the clear frontrunnerFrank SeravalliOct. 11Detroit in active talks with multiple teams; no formal demandDavid Pagnotta

The contract is the real price

Whoever trades for Edvinsson is not acquiring a cheap young defenceman. They are acquiring the right to sign him, and that negotiation is where Detroit has been stuck. Reports on the numbers differ. Pagnotta reportedly said Detroit raised its offer to six years at about $8.5 million a season, while Edvinsson's camp is reportedly looking for something closer to $11 million a year on a long-term deal. Other versions of the reporting put the ask at $9 million to $11 million over a maximum seven-year term. Treat any single figure with caution. Treat the range as real.

That range is the whole story for Toronto. Edvinsson's acquisition cost in players and picks will be steep: LeBrun's report that at least 10 teams have called tells you that much. But a team with cap room can absorb the contract without breaking anything else. A team without it has to pay twice: once in assets to Detroit, and again in the roster players it has to move to make the contract fit.

The Leafs' cap math in 2027-28

This season, Toronto can manage almost anything. The Leafs opened the year with about $7 million in space on the 2026-27 sheet behind our Maple Leafs contracts page, against a $104 million cap. The problem is next year, when Kirill Marchenko's six-year extension kicks in at $12.5 million, a jump of $8.65 million from his current $3.85 million cap hit. We laid out what that extension does to the books in our Marchenko contract breakdown.

Using the contracts on the current sheet that run through at least 2027-28, Toronto already has about $109.8 million committed to 23 players for next season. The projected 2027-28 upper limit is $113.5 million. That total includes Max Domi ($3.75 million) and Dakota Joshua ($3.25 million), both on long-term injured reserve this year, so the real flexibility depends on their health. It is still tight. The biggest lines on the blue line are already long:

DefencemanCap hitSigned throughDarren Raddysh$8.5 million2033-34Morgan Rielly$7.5 million2029-30Chris Tanev$4.5 million2029-30Jake McCabe$4.49 million2029-30Oliver Ekman-Larsson$3.5 million2027-28Troy Stecher$1.35 million2027-28

Add Edvinsson at $10 million or so and Toronto would be well over the projected cap before re-signing anyone. To make it work, John Chayka would have to send meaningful salary back to Detroit, and the Red Wings, mid-reset under an interim GM, have little reason to take on veteran money. Rielly carries a no-movement clause. Tanev and McCabe are 30-plus and signed through 2029-30. None of those is an easy contract to move in the same deal.

Why Utah fits and Toronto does not

Utah has been the most aggressive buyer in every report since the market opened, and it has the young assets and draft capital to build a package Detroit would take seriously. The Mammoth are 4-2-0 and near the top of the Central Division, a team trying to turn a promising core into a contender. A 23-year-old, 6-foot-6 left shot is exactly the piece a team in that position should overpay for. Toronto, with its money already spent on a core that is mostly in its late 20s and 30s, is in a different position.

Boston is a different case and, for Leafs fans, the more uncomfortable one. Charlie McAvoy returns from his suspension tonight in San Jose, and a Bruins blue line with McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm and Edvinsson would be a serious problem for every Atlantic team for the next decade. If there is an argument for Toronto to stay in this fight, it is a blocking argument, not a fit argument. That is not a good enough reason to pay $10 million a year for six or seven years.

What the Leafs actually need on defence

The need is real. Chris Tanev went on injured reserve on Oct. 12, retroactive to Oct. 10, after leaving the win in Colorado with an upper-body injury, and the Leafs recalled Marshall Rifai from the Marlies. Oliver Ekman-Larsson took a maintenance day on Monday after a run of hard hits. Nick Blankenburg is the next man in, as we covered in our look at his chance. That is a thin margin for a team that wants to be a contender in the Matthews window.

But the need is for a right-shot, second-pair defender who can kill penalties and absorb hard minutes, not a franchise left shot who needs a franchise contract. Chayka said himself, speaking on OverDrive in early October, that defence could be one area to address, while adding that the group needed time to show where it was. A shutdown defenceman on a fair contract fills Tanev's role now and does not wreck the 2027-28 sheet. We made that case in our Zach Whitecloud trade piece, and nothing in the Edvinsson market has changed it.

The one scenario where Toronto should push

There is a version of this where the Leafs should get aggressive. If Detroit decides it wants a hockey trade, a good young forward or defenceman back instead of picks, and is willing to take salary to get it, Toronto becomes a much more realistic partner. Easton Cowan, on an entry-level deal and producing, is the kind of player Detroit would ask about. That would be a painful conversation, and LeafsLurker would not make it unless Edvinsson signed his extension as part of the deal. Trading for an unsigned player and hoping to negotiate later is how a team ends up with no leverage and no player.

Short of that, the smart move is the patient one. Let Utah or Boston pay the double price. Spend the assets on a defender whose contract fits and whose game matches the gap Tanev's injury exposed.

What's next

Detroit still says its priority is to sign Edvinsson, and Horcoff has reportedly told teams as much. Every week he stays unsigned in Sweden raises the pressure on both sides. Watch for three things: whether Detroit and Edvinsson close the gap on term and money, whether Utah's interest turns into an agreed trade with a contract attached, and whether Boston keeps pushing. For Toronto, the next move on defence will tell us whether Chayka is chasing the biggest name or the best fit. For the full picture of who is signed and for how long, see our Maple Leafs roster and the current NHL standings.