Dakota Joshua Trade Talk Is Real, and It's Toronto's Last Move Before Camp

With Morgan Rielly effectively off the market, a Dakota Joshua trade has become the likeliest remaining transaction of the Maple Leafs' summer. Reporting this month indicates John Chayka has both Joshua and Steven Lorentz available, and that if the Rielly file stays closed, one of the two bottom-six forwards is expected to move before training camp. It is not a headline move. It is the one that actually has to happen.

Why the Rielly stall forces this

The Rielly situation reached its natural end point. He is 32, carries a $7.5-million cap hit with four years left, and holds a full no-movement clause. He reportedly submitted a four-team list earlier this offseason with a clear preference for the Western Conference, and Chayka has since indicated he is not being moved. We wrote last week that the talks had reached a stalemate with no sweetener attached, and nothing since has changed that.

That matters because Rielly was the only contract on the roster large enough to solve Toronto's cap problem in one transaction. Take him off the board and the arithmetic has to be done in smaller pieces. Toronto sits roughly $2.75 million over the $104-million ceiling, compliant only through Max Domi's expected LTIR placement and the offseason 10 per cent allowance.

LTIR is not free money. It is relief that arrives with strings — you lose the ability to accrue space during the season, which is precisely the flexibility a bubble team needs in February. Clearing an actual contract is strictly better than leaning on Domi's misfortune.

The two contracts on the table

Joshua is the bigger number and the bigger problem. He is signed for four years at $13 million total — a $3.25-million cap hit — with the deal running through 2027-28. He was acquired from Vancouver to add size and forechecking to a bottom six that badly needed both. He has been fine. He has not been $3.25 million of fine.

Lorentz is on a three-year, $4.05-million contract at a $1.35-million cap hit. That number is defensible for a fourth-line centre who kills penalties, and moving him solves less than a third of Toronto's overage. He is the easier trade and the less useful one.

Chayka's problem is that trading Lorentz is easy and insufficient, while trading Joshua is necessary and hard. Nobody is giving up a real asset for two more years of a $3.25-million fourth-liner in a summer where Anaheim is attaching draft picks to move salary. Toronto would likely be adding a sweetener, not collecting one.

The bottom six got crowded on purpose

This is the consequence of a genuinely busy offseason. Chayka added Colton Sissons, Nick Paul, Teddy Blueger, Jack Roslovic and Brandon Duhaime while Domi, Joshua and Lorentz were all still under contract. That is eight bodies for roughly five bottom-six jobs, before you account for Easton Cowan and Gavin McKenna pushing up from below.

Nick Paul in particular changes the picture. He arrived from Tampa Bay in exchange for Dennis Hildeby, a 2027 fourth-round pick and a 2028 third-rounder, with three years left at a $3.15-million cap hit. He is a bigger, more versatile version of what Joshua was brought in to be, at essentially the same price. Once you have Paul, Joshua's role is largely redundant.

We argued in July that the fourth line was already overbuilt and someone was going to be a healthy scratch. Reporting has now caught up to that. Jim Hiller's staff should not have to solve a roster-construction problem with the lineup card in October.

The take: move Joshua, eat the cost

Toronto should trade Dakota Joshua and should accept that it will cost an asset to do it. Attach a third-round pick if that is what a cap-floor team wants. The $3.25 million in relief is worth more to this roster than a mid-round pick, because it converts LTIR dependency into genuine in-season flexibility.

That flexibility has a specific use. Toronto missed the playoffs last season and is built to chase its way back in; the games that decide that are in February and March, and the deadline additions that decide those games require accrued space. A club running on LTIR all year cannot make them. This is the difference between having options at the deadline and reading about other teams' options.

The counter-argument is real and worth stating: Joshua's size and forechecking are exactly what a Toronto team with a long history of getting outmuscled in the spring is supposed to be adding, not subtracting. Fair. But Nick Paul does that job, can play centre, and is under contract for the same three years. You do not need to pay twice for the same attribute.

What a Dakota Joshua trade actually looks like

Be specific about the mechanics, because "trade Dakota Joshua" is easy to type and hard to execute. There are three realistic structures, and they cost Toronto different amounts.

• Straight dump to a cap-floor team. Toronto sends Joshua and a mid-round pick, gets back a late pick or nothing. Clears the full $3.25 million. Cheapest in cap terms, most expensive in assets.
• Salary swap. Toronto sends Joshua and takes back a smaller contract — say a $1.2-million depth forward on an expiring deal. Clears roughly $2 million, keeps a body in the lineup, requires no sweetener. This is the likeliest version.
• Retention. Toronto keeps 50 per cent to make the contract attractive and clears only $1.625 million. Solves nothing, burns a retention slot Chayka may want in February. Avoid.

The second structure is where this probably lands, and it explains why the deal has not happened yet. A swap requires finding a partner whose roster need matches Toronto's surplus, which is a slower search than simply finding someone with space. The clubs still working toward the cap floor are the obvious calls, and they have leverage because they know Toronto's alternative is a season locked in LTIR.

What Domi's uncertainty does to the timeline

The complicating variable is Max Domi's health. Domi was ruled out indefinitely after complications from offseason surgery — he could not walk in the days afterward, though Chayka has since said he is walking without issue and progressing. His availability for opening night remains unresolved and, as Chayka has indicated, will be clearer at camp. We covered the most recent update last week.

If Domi opens the year on LTIR, Toronto is technically fine and the urgency drops. If he unexpectedly clears for camp, the club has a genuine compliance problem and the Joshua trade stops being optional. Chayka is unlikely to wait to find out — you do not want to be the team forced into a salary dump in the last week of September, when every other club knows you have no choice.

What to watch

Expect movement in the last two weeks before camp opens. The cap-floor teams still working to reach the minimum are the natural partners, and the same clubs shopping for Anaheim's discarded contracts are shopping for Toronto's. Joshua's deal is meaningfully more palatable than Alex Killorn's or Frank Vatrano's, which is Toronto's one advantage in this market.

If nothing happens by mid-September, read that as Chayka betting entirely on Domi's LTIR and accepting a season with no in-year flexibility. That would be the wrong call for a team whose stated goal is getting back to the playoffs. The full contract picture is on the contracts page, and the roster competition it feeds into is on the players page.