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Maple Leafs vs Islanders Preview: Tavares Watch, Sorokin, Barzal Doubt

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Maple Leafs vs Islanders Preview: Tavares Watch, Sorokin, Barzal Doubt

LeafsLurkerOct 16, 20266 min read

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Maple Leafs vs Islanders: the essentials

The Maple Leafs vs Islanders game on Saturday, Oct. 17, at 7 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena is the second meeting of the season between the teams and the second game of Toronto's current homestand. Both arrive off an overtime-or-shootout loss on Oct. 15 and both arrive banged up: Toronto is waiting on news about John Tavares, and New York may be without Mathew Barzal.

The Leafs are 3-3-2 after blowing a 4-2 third-period lead in a 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo, despite a Kirill Marchenko hat trick. The Islanders are 3-3-1 after a 2-1 shootout loss in Ottawa the same night. Toronto won the first meeting 2-1 on Sept. 30, Jim Hiller's first win as Leafs coach.

Here is how the two teams line up heading in:

ItemMaple LeafsIslanders
Record3-3-23-3-1
Last game4-5 OT loss vs. Buffalo, Oct. 151-2 SO loss at Ottawa, Oct. 15
Key absencesChris Tanev (week-to-week), Max Domi, Dakota Joshua (LTIR); John Tavares (status unknown)Mathew Barzal (knee inflammation, did not travel to Ottawa)
Hot handAuston Matthews, six-game point streakMatthew Schaefer, six assists in first six games
Head coachJim HillerPeter DeBoer

Where the Islanders are

New York has been a low-event team through seven games. The Oct. 15 loss in Ottawa was 1-1 through 65 minutes; Matias Maccelli scored with 11.2 seconds left in the first, Ridly Greig tied it in the second, and Shane Pinto scored the only goal of the shootout. Semyon Varlamov was New York's best player in net, and Linus Ullmark stopped 20 of 21 for Ottawa.

Peter DeBoer, who took over from the fired Patrick Roy in April, is still sorting out his forward group. After the Ottawa game, he dropped Cal Ritchie and Anthony Duclair to the fourth line, moved Emil Heineman up to the second line and shifted Brayden Schenn to centre. "I'm still getting to know this group," DeBoer said afterward, per Islanders coverage of the game.

There is a fresh connection on the New York side, too. Bo Horvat, who went 0-for-1 in the Ottawa shootout, came to the Islanders from Vancouver in the January 2023 trade whose return included Aatu Räty — the same centre Toronto acquired from the Canucks on Oct. 15. The two will not meet Saturday unless the Leafs recall Räty from the Marlies, but it is a reminder of how long Räty has been a trade chip.

The most important Islander is a 19-year-old defenceman. Matthew Schaefer, the 2025 No. 1 overall pick, had six assists in his first six games, including two in a 3-2 win over Vancouver on Oct. 13 where Kyle Palmieri scored twice. He drives New York's transition game, and he will see plenty of Toronto's top line.

The goalie question for New York

Varlamov started in Ottawa, which makes Ilya Sorokin the likely starter on Saturday, though the Islanders had not confirmed it as of Friday morning. Sorokin made 24 saves against Vancouver on Oct. 13 for his 157th career win, tying Glenn "Chico" Resch for second in franchise history, per the Islanders. He also faced Toronto in the first meeting and stopped 24 of 26.

Toronto scored only twice against Sorokin on Sept. 30 — Easton Cowan and Colton Sissons, with Cowan adding an assist — and needed Anthony Stolarz's 26 saves to win. Scoring has been easier for the Leafs since; they have four or more goals in four of their last five games. Sorokin is the toughest goalie they will see on this homestand.

Where the Leafs are

The top of Toronto's lineup is producing. Auston Matthews scored in a third straight game on Oct. 15 and has a six-game point streak with six goals and seven assists, per NHL.com. Marchenko scored three times on a rebuilt second line with Tavares and Nick Paul, a change Hiller made before the Buffalo game when he moved William Nylander up beside Matthews.

The problem is holding leads. Toronto has now let a 3-0 lead at Vegas and a 4-2 lead against Buffalo get away, and two of Buffalo's third-period goals on Thursday came on point shots by defencemen through traffic. We dug into that in our breakdown of Toronto's rush-defence leak. An Islanders team that has scored four goals in its last two games will not beat Toronto in a track meet; it will try to keep the game close and wait for a Leafs mistake.

Toronto's last five games

The Leafs' recent results show a team that scores plenty and has trouble closing:

DateOpponentResultNote
Oct. 6Nashville PredatorsW 5-4 (OT)Rallied from 3-0 down; McKenna's first NHL goal
Oct. 8at Vegas Golden KnightsL 4-3 (SO)Led 3-0 after one; Bobrovsky 40 saves
Oct. 10at Colorado AvalancheW 6-3Tanev hurt in the first period
Oct. 13at Utah MammothL 5-4Third-period rally fell one short
Oct. 15Buffalo SabresL 5-4 (OT)Led 4-2; Marchenko hat trick

That is 22 goals for and 21 against in five games, an average of 4.4 Toronto goals a night. The offence is not the issue. Two of those three losses came after the Leafs held a multi-goal lead.

Lineup questions: Tavares, McKenna and Räty

Tavares left the Buffalo game early in the third period after a collision with Josh Norris, and Hiller had no update afterward. If he cannot play, Paul is the most natural second-line centre again, as he was in Colorado (our note on Paul's promotion). The new depth option is Aatu Räty, acquired from Vancouver on Oct. 15 for Jacob Quillan and Brandon Buhr and assigned to the Marlies. A recall would cost $850,000 against the cap.

Gavin McKenna is the other storyline. He played 6:36 against Buffalo and did not take a shift after the midpoint of the second period, which Hiller called his own mistake. Saturday would be McKenna's ninth NHL game; a 10th, on Monday against San Jose, would use the first year of his entry-level contract. His ice time against the Islanders will be closely watched.

In goal, Sergei Bobrovsky started Thursday and made 29 saves. Toronto has not named a Saturday starter. Stolarz, who beat New York in the first meeting, is the logical choice on a homestand with games every other night.

Three things to watch

  • Third-period structure. Toronto has given up multi-goal leads twice in eight games. Watch whether Hiller shortens the bench or keeps rolling four lines if the Leafs are ahead after 40 minutes.
  • Matthews vs. Schaefer. Matthews' streak against New York's best young puck-mover is the matchup of the night. If Schaefer's pairing draws Matthews, DeBoer is betting on transition over shutdown.
  • The power play. Marchenko's between-the-legs goal Thursday came on the man advantage. Against a goaltender of Sorokin's quality, the Leafs need special-teams goals to beat him.

Prediction and what's next

This is a game Toronto should win at home, and it needs to: the Leafs have one regulation-or-overtime win in their last four games, and an Atlantic Division start this muddled will not stay muddled for long. Our call is a tight one-goal Leafs win, with Matthews extending his streak and Sorokin keeping it close.

After Saturday, the Leafs host the San Jose Sharks on Monday, Oct. 19. Follow the Atlantic race on our standings page and every Leafs cap figure on the contracts page.

Frequently Asked Questions

When do the Maple Leafs play the Islanders?

Toronto hosts the New York Islanders on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena. It is the second meeting of the season between the teams.

Who won the first Maple Leafs vs Islanders game this season?

Toronto won 2-1 on Sept. 30 at Scotiabank Arena, Jim Hiller's first win as Leafs coach. Easton Cowan and Colton Sissons scored, Anthony Stolarz made 26 saves, and Ilya Sorokin stopped 24 of 26 for New York.

Is Mathew Barzal playing against the Maple Leafs?

Barzal did not travel to Ottawa for the Islanders' Oct. 15 game because of inflammation in his left kneecap. His status for Saturday had not been confirmed as of Oct. 16.

Is John Tavares playing against the Islanders?

Tavares left the Oct. 15 game against Buffalo early in the third period after a collision with Josh Norris. Jim Hiller had no update after the game, and Toronto had not announced his status for Saturday as of the morning of Oct. 16.

Who is the Islanders' head coach?

Peter DeBoer coaches the Islanders. General manager Mathieu Darche hired him on April 5, 2026, after firing Patrick Roy with four games left in the 2025-26 regular season.

What are the Maple Leafs' and Islanders' records?

Toronto is 3-3-2 after a 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo on Oct. 15. New York is 3-3-1 after a 2-1 shootout loss in Ottawa the same night.

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