Maple Leafs Draft Strategy: What Chayka's Combine Comments Reveal With No. 1 in Hand

Reading the Maple Leafs draft strategy under Chayka

The Maple Leafs draft strategy is coming into focus with the 2026 NHL Draft now days away, and GM John Chayka has dropped enough breadcrumbs to sketch the plan. Speaking at the NHL Scouting Combine in Buffalo, Chayka said the Leafs are going best player available, that they are seriously considering five or six players for the first overall pick, and that they have spent a lot of time with projected No. 1 Gavin McKenna. Toronto holds the top selection for the first time in a generation, and how the front office uses it will shape the rebuild.

The draft runs June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with the first round on June 26 at 7 p.m. ET. The Maple Leafs make the first pick of the night, and barring a stunner, the name they call will be one fans have been circling for months.

The McKenna near-certainty

Let's be clear about the headline: it would be a genuine shock if Toronto picks anyone other than Gavin McKenna first overall. The Penn State left wing is the consensus top prospect in the class, the player the Leafs reportedly told they intend to draft, and the centrepiece of every mock draft for months. Chayka's 'best player available' framing is not a hint that McKenna is in danger of slipping. It is the standard language a GM uses to avoid boxing himself in publicly.

We covered the McKenna signals when reports surfaced that Toronto had told him he's the pick, and nothing since has changed the trajectory. The 'five or six players' Chayka referenced are almost certainly part of due diligence — the kind of thorough process a new front office runs to make sure it is not missing something — rather than evidence of real internal debate at the top.

The Stenberg wrinkle

The one name that keeps the conversation interesting is Ivar Stenberg. Some scouts and analysts have the gap between McKenna and Stenberg closer than the public consensus suggests, and the 'experts are divided after No. 5' framing around this class hints at genuine uncertainty further down the board. We laid out the McKenna-versus-Stenberg case in this breakdown, and while McKenna remains the heavy favourite, the existence of a real second option is healthy for Toronto's leverage.

That leverage matters for one reason: trade calls. A team picking first overall with a generational-tier prospect available will field offers, and Chayka has already shown he is willing to make bold moves. Toronto has firmly signalled it intends to keep the pick — we argued it should not trade it — but a deep top of the draft gives the front office more room to listen without feeling cornered.

Best player available, and what it signals

The 'best player available' philosophy is notable for a team with an obvious organizational hole at centre. McKenna is a winger, and a strict need-based approach might push a GM toward the best centre on the board. Chayka's comments suggest he is not going to reach for position, and that is the right instinct with the first overall pick. You take the best player at No. 1 and solve positional needs through trades and free agency, not by passing on a franchise talent.

It also tells you something about how Chayka runs a draft table. The analytics-forward executive built his reputation on process and asset valuation, and 'best player available' is the philosophy most consistent with that background. Expect a disciplined, value-driven approach rather than emotional reaches, both at No. 1 and on Day 2.

Toronto's full slate of picks

The first overall selection is the star, but the Maple Leafs own eight picks in this draft, and the rest of the slate is where a front office quietly restocks. Beyond No. 1, Toronto is set to pick at No. 60 in the second round, holds two third-round selections at No. 69 and No. 85, owns No. 114 in the fourth round, and has additional picks across the later rounds, with their selections running out to roughly No. 169.

Two third-round picks are a useful asset, whether the Leafs use them to add volume to the system or package them to move up. For the full picture of what Toronto owns and owes in future drafts, see our breakdown of the first-rounders the Leafs owe through 2028, and our complete draft guide for dates, times and every Toronto pick.

The draft as a transaction hub

Draft weekend is rarely just about drafting. It is the busiest trade window of the offseason, the moment when conversations that simmered for weeks finally boil over. For Toronto, two storylines could come to a head in Buffalo: a possible Morgan Rielly trade and the ongoing search for a centre. We have tracked the Rielly situation closely, with the Sharks emerging as the front-runner, and the draft floor is exactly where a deal like that often gets finalized.

So while the cameras will be on McKenna at No. 1, keep an eye on Chayka's phone. A GM seven weeks into a rebuild, holding the first overall pick and roughly $18.8 million in cap space, has every reason to be active. The draft is as much a stage for the next big swing as it is for the pick itself.

Why best player available is the only sane call at No. 1

It is worth dwelling on why a need-based approach would be a mistake here. The first overall pick is the rarest asset in hockey, and its value comes from the probability of landing a franchise-altering player. Reaching for a lesser centre because the NHL roster lacks one would trade that probability for a marginal positional fit, and positional fit is the easiest thing to solve through other means. Toronto has cap space and trade capital to add a centre. It does not have another shot at a No. 1 pick waiting next year.

History is unkind to teams that draft for need at the very top. The graveyard of NHL drafts is full of clubs that passed on the best available talent to fill a depth chart hole and watched the player they skipped become a star elsewhere. Chayka's analytics background makes him exactly the kind of executive least likely to make that error. Best player available is not a cliché in this context; it is the disciplined, evidence-based choice, and it almost certainly points to McKenna.

The Day 2 opportunity

Where Toronto's process will really show is on the draft's second day. With two third-round picks and a cluster of later selections, the Leafs have the ammunition to take swings on high-upside projects — overage risers, late-blooming Europeans, players whose models like them more than the room does. A rebuilding system needs volume as much as it needs stars, and the Calder Cup just proved that mid-round bets and development depth can win championships at the next level down.

This is the quiet half of a draft that pays off three and four years later. The McKenna pick will dominate the headlines, but the Marlies' title was built on the kind of depth selections and shrewd signings that never trended. If Chayka's group hits on even a couple of its Day 2 picks, this draft becomes a genuine inflection point for the franchise rather than a single splashy night.

What's next

The plan, as best as it can be read, is simple: take McKenna first overall, run a disciplined best-player-available board through the rest of the weekend, and use draft-floor leverage to advance the bigger projects — a Rielly trade, a centre addition, maybe both. Then the calendar flips to July 1 and free agency.

Toronto has not picked first overall in a very long time, and the franchise has rarely had this combination of a blue-chip prospect and a front office willing to operate aggressively around him. The Maple Leafs draft strategy will be judged for years, and it starts on June 26 in Buffalo. Follow every pick and every rumour on our draft hub and keep tabs on the roster through our team page.