Maple Leafs Keep the No. 1 Pick — but Here Are the First-Rounders They Owe Through 2028

The Maple Leafs Draft Picks That Are Mortgaged Through 2028

The Maple Leafs draft picks situation is the rare case where the headline and the fine print tell opposite stories. Toronto won the 2026 lottery and will make the first overall selection at the draft in Buffalo on June 26 — almost certainly Gavin McKenna. That is the good news, and it is enormous. The complication is everything underneath it: the Leafs have promised away first-round picks in 2027 and, potentially, 2028, and the NHL only recently clarified exactly how those obligations cascade between the Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins.

For a franchise trying to retool its core, draft capital is the currency that funds everything — trades, prospects, and patience. So it is worth laying out clearly what the Leafs still control and what they have already spent. The short version: they keep the crown jewel this year, but the cupboard of future first-rounders is thinner than the lottery win makes it look.

Why the Leafs Keep the No. 1 Pick Despite Owing Boston

Start with the 2026 first-rounder, because it nearly belonged to Boston. The Leafs sent a first-round pick to the Bruins as part of the package for defenceman Brandon Carlo, but the pick was top-five protected. When Toronto won the lottery and the selection landed at No. 1 — comfortably inside that protection — the Leafs kept it. The obligation to Boston did not disappear; it rolled forward to a future year.

That protection is the entire reason Leafs fans get to dream about McKenna instead of watching Boston use Toronto's misery to draft a franchise centre. It is also a reminder of how close the math ran. Had the lottery balls bounced differently and the pick fallen outside the top five, this would be a very different, far more painful conversation. Instead, the worst season in years delivered the best possible draft outcome. We broke down that lottery win when it happened, and the McKenna-versus-Stenberg debate at No. 1 is its own story.

The Laughton Trade and the 2027 Pick to Philadelphia

The next domino is the 2027 first-rounder, which is tied to the Scott Laughton trade. Toronto acquired Laughton from the Flyers in exchange for a top-10-protected 2027 first-round pick. That means if the Leafs' 2027 selection lands inside the top 10, Toronto has protection options; if it lands outside the top 10, the pick conveys to Philadelphia as scheduled.

This is where the two obligations — Boston from the Carlo deal, Philadelphia from the Laughton deal — start to interact. Because the Leafs kept their 2026 first, the Boston debt is still outstanding, and the league had to spell out the order in which these protected picks settle so that two different teams are not both waiting on the same selection.

The NHL's Clarification: How the Cascade Works

Per reporting on the league's clarification, the structure works like this. If Toronto's 2027 first-round pick falls outside the top 10, it goes to Philadelphia, and Boston then receives the Leafs' unprotected 2028 first-round pick to settle the Carlo obligation. If the 2027 pick lands inside the top 10, Toronto retains the right to choose which of the two clubs receives it, and the team that does not get the 2027 pick is instead owed Toronto's unprotected 2028 first-rounder.

Read that twice, because it matters: in almost every scenario, the Leafs are surrendering a first-round pick in both 2027 and 2028. The only thing that flexes is which team gets which year. Toronto's lottery luck saved the 2026 pick, but it did not erase the bill — it largely pushed the cost into the following two drafts. For a franchise that just sold its season to chase a top pick, that is a meaningful constraint on the years ahead.

What It Means for Chayka's Draft Capital

John Chayka inherited a draft toolkit that is loaded at the very top and light everywhere else. He will walk into Buffalo with the best prospect in the class and not much premium ammunition behind him, since the next two first-rounders are spoken for. That shapes how aggressive Toronto can be on the trade market — you cannot keep dangling first-round picks you have already traded away.

It also raises the stakes on hitting outside the first round. With future firsts committed, the Leafs' scouting staff, led by amateur scouting director Mark Leach under new assistant GM Judd Brackett, has to mine value in the middle and late rounds to keep the prospect pipeline flowing. A rebuild that runs through a single premium pick is a high-variance plan, and Toronto has narrowed its margin for error in the drafts that follow.

The trade math changes too. A first-round pick is the most liquid asset in hockey — the chip that headlines deadline deals and pries loose impact players. The Leafs have already spent two of their next three on Carlo and Laughton, which means Chayka cannot lean on first-rounders to fix the roster the way his predecessor did. He will have to get creative: trading from a deep, if not elite, prospect pool, using cap space as a sweetener, or moving roster players in hockey trades. That is a harder way to operate, and it puts even more pressure on the value he can squeeze out of the picks Toronto does still hold.

The Bigger Picture: A Rebuild on One Premium Asset

Step back and the strategy is coherent, if risky. The Leafs bottomed out, won the lottery, and will add a potential generational talent in McKenna to a core that still includes Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Matthew Knies. That is a legitimate foundation. The cost is that Toronto has limited first-round capital to support the build over the next two years, having already cashed those picks in for Carlo and Laughton during the previous regime's win-now push.

Whether that trade-off looks smart depends entirely on McKenna becoming the player the scouts believe he is — and on Chayka finding value where the Leafs still have it: later picks, prospects, and cap space. The first overall selection is the kind of asset that can paper over a lot of mistakes. It cannot, by itself, refill two drafts' worth of missing first-rounders.

It is fair to feel two things at once about all of this. Keeping the No. 1 pick is a genuine franchise win, the sort of break that can reset a decade. And mortgaging the next two first rounds is a real constraint that will shape how Toronto can build around its new star. Both are true. The lottery did not so much erase the debt the previous regime ran up as it bought the franchise a centrepiece to justify it. Now the job is to make that centrepiece worth the bill that comes due in 2027 and 2028.

What's Next

The first round goes June 26 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with rounds two through seven on June 27. The Leafs are on the clock at No. 1, and the expectation across the league is that McKenna is the pick. After that, watch how Chayka manages a draft weekend in which Toronto's biggest decisions may come not at the podium but on the phones — using the No. 1 selection's gravity, and what mid-round capital he has, to keep retooling the roster.

The lottery win was the franchise's best break in years. Just keep the fine print in view: the Maple Leafs keep the No. 1 pick this June, but Boston and Philadelphia are still waiting on first-rounders in 2027 and 2028. For the full board and Toronto's selections, check our draft hub as the date approaches.