Maple Leafs defence trade: Chayka is right to wait, but not for long

What John Chayka said about the Maple Leafs defence

The Maple Leafs defence is the one part of the roster John Chayka has openly said he could still change. Speaking on OverDrive this week, Toronto's general manager was asked whether the team would look to add, and he named the blue line first: "Defense could be one, but at the same time, I think we need to give this group some time to show us where they're at and what they can do."

He followed it with the line that got the trade crowd talking: "We feel like we have enough future capital." And, for anyone who thought the phone had gone quiet after the Kirill Marchenko trade on Sept. 29: "From our side, we're always having conversations with different managers."

Read together, that is not a GM announcing a move. It is a GM saying a move is possible, that he can pay for it, and that he is not going to be rushed into it four games into a new coach's tenure. LeafsLurker's view: that is the right posture, as long as "some time" has an end date. The Leafs should give this group until roughly the middle of November, and then make the call they already know they will probably have to make.

The insider reporting around Chayka's comments

Chayka's remarks did not land in a vacuum. Over the first week of the season, David Pagnotta reported that Toronto had become "a little bit more aggressive" in its search for a defenceman, and Chris Johnston described the front office's posture as "patiently aggressive." Pagnotta has since reported that what Chayka is after is a second-pair defenceman whose specialty is shutting things down, not another puck-mover. The club has not confirmed any target.

We went through the names already being thrown at the Leafs, and why the expensive ones do not fit, in our piece on the top-four defenceman hunt. Detroit's Simon Edvinsson, who Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported on Oct. 3 would now prefer a trade, is the one young, high-end option on the market, and we weighed that one separately in our Edvinsson breakdown.

Chayka's own words on the group he has are worth setting beside the reporting. On Oct. 2 he told TSN that "it's early, but we've been able to defend much more effectively than we have in the last few years." On Oct. 3, on the Real Kyper and Bourne show, he went out of his way to praise Chris Tanev, saying people forget the Leafs lost Tanev last season and calling him one of the best, if not the best, defensive defencemen in the game. That is a GM who likes his top pair and is shopping for the second one.

The Maple Leafs defence as it stands

Hiller's pairs have been stable through four games. Here is the group, with cap figures from our Leafs contracts page:

PairLeft sideRight sideCombined cap hitFirstMorgan Rielly ($7.5M, through 2029-30)Darren Raddysh ($8.5M, through 2033-34)$16.0MSecondJake McCabe ($4.49M, through 2029-30)Chris Tanev ($4.5M, through 2029-30)$8.99MThirdOliver Ekman-Larsson ($3.5M, through 2027-28)Troy Stecher ($1.35M, through 2027-28)$4.85MExtra—Nick Blankenburg ($1.4M, through 2026-27)$1.4M

The pairing labels matter less than the minutes. McCabe and Tanev have been the shutdown pair in all but name, and they are the reason Chayka can say his team defends better. Rielly and Raddysh carry the offence from the back end; we argued after the opening week that Raddysh needs Tanev more than he needs Rielly, and nothing since has changed our mind.

The soft spot is obvious. Toronto is one injury away from Stecher or Blankenburg playing real minutes against real forwards, and Tanev turns 37 in December. A team that wants to play a heavy-defending game in April cannot have its depth chart fall off a cliff after four names.

What "enough future capital" actually means

Chayka is right that Toronto can pay. He is less right if anyone hears "enough" as "plenty." The Leafs' first-round picks, per our draft pick tracker, look like this:

DraftFirst-round pickStatus2027Toronto's ownOwed to Boston (Brandon Carlo trade)2027Colorado'sOwned; top-10 protected, becomes an unprotected 2028 first if it lands in the top 102028Toronto's ownOwed to Philadelphia (Scott Laughton trade)2029Toronto's ownOwned

That Colorado pick, which came back for Nicolas Roy at the March 5 deadline, is the centrepiece of any real offer. Toronto also holds its own second-rounders in 2027 and 2028, and has prospects other teams ask about, starting with Ben Danford, the 2024 first-round pick (31st overall) who is now a full-time Marlie.

Here is the catch, and it is the best argument for Chayka's patience. The value of the Colorado pick moves with Colorado. The Avalanche won their first two games before losing 3-2 in Winnipeg on Oct. 7, and Toronto plays them on Saturday. If Colorado is the contender everyone expects, that pick is a late first, and a late first does not buy a cost-controlled top-four defenceman by itself. If the Avalanche wobble, the pick gets more interesting, but only up to a point, because a top-10 finish turns it into a 2028 pick instead. Nobody knows which version it is after three games. Six weeks of standings will say a lot more.

The cap room is real, but borrowed

The other half of the math is money. With Max Domi, Dakota Joshua and Elvis Merzlikins on long-term injured reserve, CapWages showed Toronto with $7 million in cap space as of our last check on Oct. 3. That figure is what makes an in-season trade possible without sending a roster player back.

It is also temporary. LTIR room exists because injured players are out, and it shrinks when they return. Domi had offseason back surgery and Chayka has said he remains out indefinitely; Joshua's core injury has been described as week to week. Any defenceman Toronto adds with term has to fit after those two come back, not just today. That pushes the Leafs toward a player on a modest number, or toward a deal that sends salary the other way.

The market might help with that. Friedman reported on Oct. 3 that Edmonton has explored a "lateral trade," possibly a defenceman for a forward, while it deals with injuries up front. When contending teams start shopping defencemen to fill forward holes, the price of a depth-plus blue-liner usually drops. That is one more reason not to pay a premium in the first week of October.

LeafsLurker's take: patience, with a deadline

We have been critical of plenty this fall, including the details of the Knies-for-Marchenko trade. On this one, Chayka is making the correct call, for three reasons.

• The evidence is thin. Four games, a 2-2-0 record, and a defence that has been more good than bad. Trading the most valuable pick you own on that sample would be guessing.
• The price will move. Edvinsson's situation, Edmonton's shopping and the usual November sellers all point toward a buyer's market, not a seller's one.
• The pick's value will clarify. Knowing whether Colorado's first is a No. 25 or a No. 14 changes what Toronto can get for it.

But patience is a plan only if it has a finish line. Toronto's problem is not its top four in October. It is what happens in April, when the minutes tighten and the third pair gets targeted. The Leafs should know by the middle of November whether Ekman-Larsson and Stecher can hold that line against good teams. If they cannot, Chayka should use the Colorado pick then, on a defenceman with at least one more year of term, rather than waiting for the deadline and paying the rental tax.

What's next for the Maple Leafs defence

The western trip is a good test. Toronto opens it in Las Vegas on Oct. 8, plays at Colorado on Oct. 10 and finishes at Utah on Oct. 13. Three teams that can roll four lines and pressure a third pair is exactly the kind of week that tells a GM what he needs.

Watch Hiller's deployment, specifically how many defensive-zone starts the Ekman-Larsson and Stecher pair gets on the road, where the Leafs lose the last change. If Hiller starts hiding them, the answer to Chayka's question will be in the ice-time sheet long before it is in a press release. Check the standings through the trip; if Toronto comes home at .500 or better without needing the third pair to win anything, the patience will have paid off for another few weeks.