Maple Leafs vs. Canucks Preview: Tanev Could Return, Stolarz Expected in Goal

Maple Leafs vs. Canucks: the essentials

The Maple Leafs vs. Canucks game on Saturday, Oct. 31, at Rogers Arena closes Toronto's four-game western road trip, and it arrives at the right time and against the right opponent. Puck drop is 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) on Sportsnet's Saturday Night Hockey. Toronto is 7-6-2 after losing 5-4 in Seattle on Oct. 28. Vancouver is 3-11-1, last in the NHL, and lost 3-2 in San Jose on Oct. 29 after blowing a two-goal lead in the third period.

Two lineup questions shape the night for Toronto. Head coach Jim Hiller said there is "a chance" Chris Tanev plays for the first time since Oct. 10, and Anthony Stolarz is widely expected to get the start in goal after Sergei Bobrovsky's rough night against the Kraken. Kirill Marchenko will not play: the NHL listed him as week-to-week with a lower-body injury on Oct. 28.

This is a game the Leafs have to win. That is not a cliché here. It is arithmetic.

What the road trip has cost Toronto

The trip began with a 7-2 rout in Edmonton on Oct. 24, the night William Nylander scored his 300th goal. It has gone the wrong way since: a 5-2 loss in Calgary on Oct. 26, in which Marchenko was hurt, and the 5-4 loss in Seattle, decided by a Brandon Montour slap shot with about 33 seconds left in regulation after Auston Matthews had tied the game with the goalie pulled.

Before the trip, we set five of eight points as the bar out west. That target is gone. Toronto has two points from three games, and the best it can do now is four of eight. A loss to the worst team in the league would mean two of eight and a flight home with real questions about where this group sits in the Atlantic. You can track the division race on our standings page.

Here is how the trip has gone so far:

Chris Tanev's possible return

Tanev has not played since Toronto's 6-3 win in Denver on Oct. 10. He spent much of the trip practising in a red non-contact jersey. He has since moved into a regular practice sweater and been upgraded to day-to-day, and Hiller said there is a chance he plays Saturday. We laid out the timeline in our piece on why Vancouver was the target for Tanev's return.

If he plays, it changes the blue line more than any other single move Hiller could make. The Leafs have spent most of October patching injuries on defence, with Nick Blankenburg and Marshall Rifai both landing on injured reserve after the Oct. 22 win over the Rangers and Cole McWard and Dakota Mermis recalled from the Marlies to fill gaps. Tanev, 36, carries a $4.5 million cap hit through 2029-30 (see our contracts page). He is still the defenceman Hiller trusts most to start shifts in his own end.

There is a case for caution too. Tanev played only five games before getting hurt, and the Leafs head home after this game. If the medical staff want one more practice, nobody should argue. Against a Canucks team that has scored freely in spurts, including three late goals in Anaheim on Oct. 27, the Leafs would like him back, but a one-game rush is not worth another two weeks out.

The goalie decision: Stolarz expected in Vancouver

Bobrovsky made 12 saves on 17 shots in Seattle and has allowed three or more goals in nine of his 10 starts as a Maple Leaf. He is 3-5-2. Stolarz is 4-1-0 and had a .907 save percentage through his five appearances heading into the weekend. Hiller said after the Seattle game that he never considered pulling Bobrovsky, but the expectation around the team is that Stolarz starts in Vancouver.

We argued for exactly that in our column on why Stolarz should start and the Leafs should ride the hot hand. Saturday is a chance to test that. A strong Stolarz start against a struggling opponent would give Hiller a clean reason to keep going back to him when the Leafs return to Scotiabank Arena.

Vancouver will not have Thatcher Demko, who is on injured reserve with a hip injury and has been projected to return before Christmas. Leevi Merilainen has carried much of the load. He made 18 saves in the overtime win in Anaheim and 21 in the loss in San Jose. Kevin Lankinen is the other option.

The Canucks: last in the league and listening to offers

Vancouver's season has been rough. Under head coach Manny Malhotra, the Canucks lost 10 straight before Oct. 27, when they came back from 5-2 down late in the third period in Anaheim. Jonathan Lekkerimäki scored twice in the final three minutes of regulation, and Filip Hronek won it 6-5 on a five-on-three power play in the last seconds of overtime. Two nights later in San Jose, they led 2-0 on goals from Drew O'Connor and Liam Öhgren, then gave up three in the third, two from Will Smith and the winner from Mason Marchment. They are 1-10-1 in their past 12 games.

The front office has noticed. The Fourth Period reported on Oct. 28 that general manager Ryan Johnson is willing to move veterans Jake DeBrusk, Drew O'Connor, Filip Chytil and Luke Schenn, the former Leaf, while looking for younger NHL-proven players. That kind of week tends to produce one of two things: a flat team or a desperate one. The Leafs should expect the second for at least 20 minutes.

The Canucks still have real threats. Elias Pettersson entered the San Jose game with 15 points in 14 games and had three points against Anaheim. Brock Boeser is on the top line with him. Hronek anchors the back end. Vancouver has given up a lot of goals, but it has also shown it can pile them up in a hurry.

Players to watch

Here are the matchups that should decide the night:

Gavin McKenna is the Leaf to watch. The 18-year-old had the first three-point game of his NHL career in Seattle, both goals on power-play passes from Matthews, and moved up to the top line with Matthews and Jack Roslovic. He has five goals and 11 points in 15 games. Hiller admitted the line did not do much at five-on-five against the Kraken, so the real test on Saturday is whether McKenna and Matthews can tilt the ice at even strength, not just on the man advantage. More on that in our piece on McKenna's two-goal night and the Matthews fit.

How the Leafs lines are likely to look without Marchenko

Marchenko's injury takes 14 points in 14 games out of the lineup, along with Toronto's best second-line finisher. With John Tavares still week-to-week and not yet skating with the group, Nick Paul stays in the second-line centre role he has held since mid-October. Expect Hiller to keep the McKenna, Matthews and Roslovic trio together after one game, because there is no obvious alternative. We broke down the options in what the Leafs lose with Marchenko out.

The power play has carried the offence on this trip, with three of Toronto's four goals in Seattle coming on the man advantage or with the goalie pulled. Toronto's penalty kill was first in the league entering the Seattle game, per Maple Leafs Hot Stove's pre-game numbers, though Chandler Stephenson's second-period power-play goal dented it. Special teams should favour the Leafs on paper. At five-on-five, Toronto has to stop giving up rush chances, which has been the team's main weakness all month.

Prediction and what's next

Toronto should win this game. The Canucks are last in the league, missing their No. 1 goalie, and openly shopping veterans. The Leafs have scored freely when healthy and have the better top six even without Marchenko and Tavares. Our pick: Leafs 5-3, with Stolarz making it two straight wins in his starts and McKenna adding at least a point.

A win would take the road trip to four of eight points, below the bar but survivable. A loss would make November's first homestand a referendum on Hiller's lineup choices and on John Chayka's patience with the blue line. Either way, the team flies home after Saturday with Tanev close or back, Tavares inching toward practice, and a clearer picture of who is in net.