Maple Leafs vs Avalanche Preview: MacKinnon, Makar and Toronto's Colorado Pick

Maple Leafs vs Avalanche: the essentials

The Toronto Maple Leafs play the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver on Saturday, Oct. 10, at 7 p.m. ET (5 p.m. local). Maple Leafs vs Avalanche is the second game of a three-game western trip, and it comes two nights after Toronto gave up a 3-0 lead in a 4-3 shootout loss in Vegas. The Leafs are 2-2-1. Colorado is 3-1-0 and has scored 23 goals in four games.

There is an unusual twist for Leafs fans. Toronto owns Colorado's 2027 first-round pick, from the March 5, 2026 trade that sent Nicolas Roy to the Avalanche. Every Avalanche win makes that pick a little later. On Saturday, at least, nobody in Toronto has to feel conflicted about which result to want.

LeafsLurker's read: this is the hardest game on the trip and a fair measure of where Jim Hiller's team is. Toronto cannot afford another night of being outshot 43-24, because Colorado will not miss the way Vegas did.

Where the two teams stand

Both clubs' results so far, from game reports:

TeamRecordLast gamePointsToronto Maple Leafs2-2-1L 4-3 (SO) at Vegas, Oct. 85Colorado Avalanche3-1-0W 7-3 at Calgary, Oct. 86

Colorado's four games have been loud. The Avalanche opened with an 8-4 home win over Los Angeles in which Nathan MacKinnon and Artturi Lehkonen each scored twice and the power play went 4-for-5, though they also gave up two short-handed goals. They beat St. Louis 6-1 next, lost 3-2 in Winnipeg on Oct. 7, and then went into Calgary the following night and won 7-3. Cale Makar had two goals and an assist in that one, MacKinnon a goal and two assists, and Devon Toews and Jaden Schwartz scored twice each.

That means Colorado comes home on Saturday after a back-to-back on the road, while Toronto has had Friday to rest. It is a small edge. Against a team scoring nearly six goals a game, Toronto will take any it can get.

The Avalanche are still the West's measuring stick

Colorado won the Presidents' Trophy last season with a franchise-record 121 points, going 55-16-11. The spring ended badly: after sweeping Los Angeles and beating Minnesota in five, the Avalanche were swept by Vegas in the Western Conference Final, losing Game 4 2-1 on May 26. Head coach Jared Bednar is back, and the core of MacKinnon, Makar and Toews is intact.

In goal, Bednar started Mackenzie Blackwood in each of the first three games. Blackwood stopped 52 of 57 shots in the two opening wins and 16 of 19 in the loss in Winnipeg. Scott Wedgewood started in Calgary on the second night of the back-to-back and made 26 saves. With a day off between games, Blackwood is the more likely starter on Saturday, though Colorado had not confirmed it as of Friday.

Toronto's lineup questions

The first is on defence. Oliver Ekman-Larsson was driven into the boards by Jeremy Lauzon with under two minutes left in regulation in Vegas and did not return. Hiller said afterward that he believed the veteran would be okay, but the team had not updated his status by Friday. If he cannot play, Nick Blankenburg would make his regular-season debut for Toronto. We looked at what the injury means for the blue line, and for the trade market, in our Ekman-Larsson injury piece.

The second is in goal. Sergei Bobrovsky made 40 saves in Vegas and is still looking for his first Leafs win at 0-2-1. Anthony Stolarz was in net for both Toronto wins, a 2-1 win over the Islanders on Sept. 30 and the 5-4 overtime comeback against Nashville on Oct. 6. Hiller had not named a starter as of Friday. After a 40-save night, either choice is defensible.

The third is the forward lines. Hiller moved Gavin McKenna to the third line with Nick Paul and Colton Sissons and promoted Easton Cowan to the second line for Vegas, and both scored or set one up in the first nine minutes. He then reshuffled again in the third period. We argued in our McKenna column that the new trios deserve a longer look.

The matchup problem: MacKinnon on the road

Hiller had last change at home for the first four games and could steer the matchups he wanted. In Vegas, Ryan Craig had that advantage, and on Saturday Bednar will. That means MacKinnon's line will get the matchups Colorado wants, and Toronto will have to respond on the fly.

The natural answer is the pair Hiller has trusted most: Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev. Tanev has built his career on shutting down top lines, and this is the kind of night that pairing exists for. Up front, the Leafs are likely to lean on Auston Matthews' line to go head to head, since a matchup that leaves MacKinnon against Toronto's depth would be the worst outcome. Matthews scored the overtime winner against Nashville and had four points that night; he has not scored since.

The other matchup to watch is special teams. Colorado's power play is dangerous with Makar at the top, and Toronto's kill has been its best unit. If the Leafs can keep the penalty count down and the kill sharp, they can keep a game against a much higher-scoring opponent close into the third.

Three things Toronto has to do

The keys to Maple Leafs vs Avalanche are not complicated, but they are demanding:

• Stay out of the penalty box. Toronto's penalty kill is 14-for-15 this season, but Vegas got four power plays and a penalty shot on Thursday and turned the game in that stretch. Colorado's power play scored four times in the opener.
• Win the second period. Vegas scored twice in the first four minutes of the second. Toronto has had trouble resetting after intermissions, and Colorado's home crowd will push hard on a team that let a lead slip two days earlier.
• Manage the puck against Makar. Colorado's offence starts from its blue line, with Makar and Toews both scoring twice in Calgary. Toronto's forwards have to get pucks deep and make the Avalanche defence turn around, rather than turning it over at the blue line.

The Colorado pick, explained

Toronto sent Roy to Colorado at last season's deadline for a conditional 2027 first-round pick and a conditional 2026 fifth. The first is top-10 protected: if Colorado's 2027 pick lands in the top 10, Toronto instead receives the Avalanche's 2028 first-round pick, unprotected. Given how good Colorado is, the pick is very likely to convey in 2027, late in the first round.

That matters more than usual, because Toronto's own 2027 first is owed to Boston from the Brandon Carlo trade. The Colorado pick is the Leafs' only first-rounder in that draft, and it is the obvious centrepiece if John Chayka trades for a defenceman this season. We covered the pick in detail in our 2027 draft picks explainer, and the full list is on our draft page.

What's next

After Denver, the Leafs finish the trip against the Utah Mammoth in Salt Lake City on Tuesday, Oct. 13, then return home to face Buffalo on Oct. 15. Five points from the first five games is a middling start. A point or two in Colorado would turn the trip into a good one; another lost lead would put Hiller's first month under real pressure. Follow the race in the Atlantic Division standings.