Connor Hellebuyck Trade: Devils Land Him and the Leafs Were Right to Pass

The Connor Hellebuyck trade, in plain terms

The Connor Hellebuyck trade is done, and he is not coming anywhere near the Atlantic Division. The Winnipeg Jets sent the three-time Vezina Trophy winner to the New Jersey Devils on Oct. 23, the day his team-imposed suspension was set to end. Winnipeg received forwards Dawson Mercer and Nick Bjugstad, goaltender Nico Daws, the draft rights to prospect Alexander Command, a 2029 second-round pick and a 2027 seventh-round pick.

Hellebuyck, 33, had to waive the full no-move clause in his contract to make it happen. He carries an $8.5 million cap hit through 2030-31, and he had not played a game this season after going public with his trade request in August and then skipping training camp. Reports put the cost of the suspension to him at nearly $930,000 in forfeited salary.

For Leafs fans, the headline is the destination. The team most heavily linked to Hellebuyck since the summer was the Buffalo Sabres, an Atlantic Division rival. On Oct. 19, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman still named Buffalo among the clubs that mattered most in the talks, along with the Rangers and, possibly, Utah and Carolina. New Jersey only surfaced as the frontrunner on the morning of the trade. The Devils play in the Metropolitan. That is the best realistic outcome this saga could have produced for Toronto.

What New Jersey gave up

Here is the full package, as announced by the Jets.

No first-round pick, and none of the Devils' core players. NHL.com framed it as proof that New Jersey's new front office believes it can win now, and noted the Devils have missed the playoffs 11 times in the past 14 seasons. Daily Faceoff graded it an A+ for the Devils. Several analysts were cooler on Mercer, describing him as a useful middle-six player who has not matched his 2022-23 form.

Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said he was "very comfortable" with the return, per NHL.com's Oct. 23 report. Most of the league seems to think he took less than a Vezina-and-Hart winner should fetch. That is what happens when everyone knows you have to move a player, and it is the reason LeafsLurker argued the Leafs had no business bidding up the price.

Why the Leafs were right to stay out

We said it on Oct. 18 in why the Leafs should stay out of the Hellebuyck market, and the final deal does not change the argument. Toronto already has two goalies under contract through at least 2029, and adding an $8.5 million goalie on top of them was never realistic under a $104 million cap without gutting the roster somewhere else.

Here is what the Leafs are paying in net, per our Leafs contracts page.

That is $10.75 million already committed to the Leafs crease. Neither goalie has been dominant: Bobrovsky entered the Oct. 22 Rangers game with a save percentage around .900, and Stolarz has had a slow start. But the Leafs' biggest weakness in October has been a defence that keeps losing bodies, not the goalies behind it. Spending the assets it would have taken to land Hellebuyck on a goalie, instead of a right-shot defenceman, would have been fixing the wrong problem.

There is also the matter of what we wrote about Bobrovsky as Mats Sundin's signing. This front office made a decision on its goaltending in the summer. Reversing it in October for a 33-year-old who had not played in months would have been a panic move.

The Buffalo angle

The Sabres were last in the Atlantic with 10 points from 10 games through Oct. 23. A Hellebuyck trade there would have handed a division rival a goalie capable of stealing four or five games a season, including some against Toronto. In a tight Atlantic, where Toronto sits fourth with 14 points and only two points separate second from sixth, that matters.

Instead, Buffalo still has the same goaltending it started the season with, and Toronto still gets to face it. Reports over the summer said Buffalo and Winnipeg could not agree on terms, and Sabres GM Jarmo Kekalainen has publicly expressed confidence in his starter, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Whatever happened at the end, Buffalo did not get the deal done. The result is what counts: the best goalie available this fall landed in the Metropolitan, not in a division rival's building that the Leafs visit twice a season and could meet in the first round of the playoffs.

What it means for the Devils and the Leafs' schedule

New Jersey needed this. Before the deal, the Devils ranked 23rd of 32 teams in save percentage, and Jake Allen, who now moves back to a backup role, had an .883 save percentage. With a goalie of Hellebuyck's level behind a team that has been built to win now, the Devils become a problem in the Metropolitan and in a wild-card race the Leafs could end up in.

There is one cap wrinkle. Reports say the Devils will need to clear roughly $325,000 once Hellebuyck is officially reinstated and his full $8.5 million counts. Expect a small move in New Jersey before his debut.

The Leafs will see him soon. Toronto and New Jersey meet three times this season.

The Nov. 8 game at home could be one of Hellebuyck's first few starts in a Devils sweater. Toronto has to hope its blue line is healthier by then, because the Leafs' habit of perimeter shots, which sank them against Ilya Sorokin on Oct. 17, is exactly what Hellebuyck eats up.

The Rangers, Stolarz and the next domino

One more ripple. The Rangers lost Igor Shesterkin for the season, and TSN's Darren Dreger reported the week of Oct. 14 that they had "kicked tires" on Stolarz. Friedman also said on Oct. 19 that the Rangers were not willing to take on Hellebuyck's $8.5 million, which is why they were looking at cheaper options. With Hellebuyck off the board, New York's need has not gone away. We argued on Oct. 19 that Toronto should say no to a Stolarz trade, and we still lean that way, because a two-goalie team should not become a one-goalie team in October.

The only version of a Stolarz deal worth hearing is one that returns a real right-shot defenceman. With three Leafs defencemen on injured reserve as of Oct. 23, Chayka should at least take the call if it comes.

What's next

Hellebuyck's Devils debut date had not been announced as of Saturday morning. Winnipeg now turns to its own goaltending without him, and the Leafs move on knowing the biggest trade of the early season did not land on their doorstep. Track Toronto's place in the race on our standings page.

The bigger lesson for Chayka is about leverage. The Jets got squeezed because the whole league knew their timeline. If the Leafs keep waiting to fix their defence until the injury list forces them to, they will be the ones negotiating from that position.