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Atlantic Division Standings: Leafs' 18 Points Are Weaker Than They Look
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The Atlantic Division standings entering November look tight. Boston leads with 21 points, and only six points separate the Bruins from eighth-place Detroit. The Toronto Maple Leafs are 8-6-2 with 18 points, level with Tampa Bay and Florida. That tie flatters Toronto. The Leafs have played more games than every team around them, and by points percentage they sit last among the seven teams bunched at the top of the division.
Here is the table, what games played does to it, and why the next six home games matter more than a one-point gap suggests.
The Atlantic Division standings entering November
These figures come from standings published on Nov. 1 and Nov. 2 by Sports Illustrated and Stats Perform. Points percentage is points earned divided by points available:
| Team | Record | Games | Points | Points % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Bruins | 10-4-1 | 15 | 21 | .700 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 9-3-2 | 14 | 20 | .714 |
| Ottawa Senators | 9-5-1 | 15 | 19 | .633 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 8-3-2 | 13 | 18 | .692 |
| Florida Panthers | 8-4-2 | 14 | 18 | .643 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 8-6-2 | 16 | 18 | .563 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 7-4-3 | 14 | 17 | .607 |
| Detroit Red Wings | — | — | 15 | — |
A few teams played on Sunday, Nov. 1, so individual records may have moved by a game since. The overall picture is the point: Toronto has played the most games of the top seven and has the lowest points percentage of the group. Across the conference, Carolina leads the East with 24 points at 11-2-2.
Games in hand are the whole story
Tampa Bay has the same 18 points as Toronto in three fewer games. If the Lightning win even one of those three, they are two points clear with the same number of games played. Florida and Buffalo have two games in hand on the Leafs, and Montreal has two in hand while sitting two points ahead.
Points percentage removes the noise. Toronto's .563 works out to a 92-point pace over 82 games. Tampa Bay's .692 projects to about 113 points, Montreal's .714 to about 117 and Boston's .700 to about 115. Those early paces will come down. The gap between Toronto and the teams around it is real all the same, and it is bigger than the standings suggest.
Why it matters this early
It is easy to wave off standings in early November. The old rule of thumb says otherwise: teams out of a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving rarely recover, because points are hard to make up when everyone in the division is collecting them. The Leafs do not need to lead the Atlantic in November. They need to stop falling behind on points percentage while burning through their schedule faster than everyone else.
How the Leafs got here
Toronto's season has been a run of streaks. The Leafs lost the Sept. 29 opener to Montreal 3-2, later won four straight capped by a 7-2 rout in Edmonton on Oct. 24, then lost in Calgary and Seattle before beating Vancouver 4-2 on Oct. 31. Head coach Jim Hiller said after the trip that his team has been "too inconsistent," per The Hockey News. We argued that November is Hiller's real test.
The loser points have helped. Two overtime or shootout losses, including the 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo on Oct. 15, have kept Toronto level on points with teams that have been better. But six regulation losses in 16 games is the most of any team in the top seven of the Atlantic, and that is the number that keeps the points percentage down.
Injuries explain part of it. John Tavares has been out since the Buffalo game, Kirill Marchenko is week-to-week after getting hurt in Calgary, and the blue line has been thin since Chris Tanev was hurt in Denver on Oct. 10. The Leafs have still scored. Auston Matthews leads the team with 11 goals. The problem has been goals against, especially off the rush.
What has to change to climb the table
The fix starts in the Leafs' own end. Toronto can score with anyone: the Leafs put seven on Edmonton and four on Vancouver on the road trip, and they have scored four goals in several of their losses. Losing 5-4 three times is not an offence problem. It is a team that gives up too many clean looks off the rush and leaves its goaltender exposed.
Tanev's return helps right away. He went back into the lineup in Vancouver, and Anthony Stolarz stopped 26 shots in a game Toronto controlled for long stretches. That is the template for the homestand: a defence-first game, a goalie who does not have to steal it, and enough finishing from Matthews, William Nylander and Jack Roslovic to win by two.
The goaltending question matters too. Stolarz got the win in Vancouver, and Sergei Bobrovsky's start has been uneven. Hiller does not need to name a permanent No. 1, but with Montreal and New Jersey on back-to-back nights on Nov. 7 and 8, he will have to trust both. Points percentage will not climb if one of those nights becomes a giveaway.
The rivals to watch
Montreal is the problem team. The Canadiens have the best points percentage in the division, they already beat Toronto in the opener, and they come to Scotiabank Arena on Nov. 7. That is a four-point game in every practical sense.
Tampa Bay is the sleeping threat. The Lightning have three games in hand and the second-best points percentage in the Atlantic, even with Nikita Kucherov's trade request hanging over the team. General manager Julien BriseBois has said the team "unequivocally" has no intention of trading him. We looked at whether the Leafs should chase Kucherov and argued against it.
Boston leads the division and keeps finding ways to win, including an overtime comeback against Chicago over the weekend. Ottawa sits third but is now without forwards Andre Burakovsky and Warren Foegele for three to four weeks, which could open a door in the middle of the pack.
Our take: the homestand decides which tier Toronto is in
The Leafs are not in trouble. They are in the pack, and the pack is about to separate. Toronto plays six straight at home from Nov. 3 to Nov. 14 against Utah, Montreal, New Jersey, Colorado, Minnesota and Edmonton. We set eight of 12 points as the bar for the six-game homestand. That would put Toronto at 26 points in 22 games, a .591 pace. That is still not elite, but it is good enough to stay in the race while Tavares and Marchenko get healthy.
Anything less and the games-in-hand math catches up. If Tampa Bay, Florida and Montreal keep winning at their current rates, a .500 homestand would leave the Leafs fighting for a wild-card spot by the end of November instead of a top-three seed.
That is why GM John Chayka's trade talk matters now. If the homestand goes badly, the case for a defenceman upgrade gets louder. Chayka has said he is open to another big move, and we covered what he has said about trade plans.
What's next
The Leafs host Utah on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and the standings will move every night through the homestand. Follow the race on our live standings page, and check the contracts sheet for the cap room Chayka would need for any trade. Watch three numbers over the next 12 days: Toronto's points percentage, Montreal's lead in the head-to-head, and how many of Tampa Bay's games in hand turn into wins.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the Atlantic Division right now?
The Boston Bruins led the Atlantic Division entering November with 21 points on a 10-4-1 record. Montreal was second with 20 points at 9-3-2 and the best points percentage in the division, .714.
Where are the Maple Leafs in the standings?
Toronto was 8-6-2 with 18 points entering November, tied with Tampa Bay and Florida. The Leafs have played 16 games, more than any of the teams above them, and their .563 points percentage was the lowest of the Atlantic's top seven.
What is the Maple Leafs' points pace?
Eighteen points in 16 games projects to about 92 points over an 82-game season. That is roughly playoff-bubble territory in the Eastern Conference.
Who leads the Eastern Conference?
The Carolina Hurricanes led the East with 24 points at 11-2-2 in standings published Nov. 1. Goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov then won his 10th straight to open the season with a 7-0 shutout of Winnipeg that night.
How many games in hand does Tampa Bay have on Toronto?
The Lightning had played 13 games to Toronto's 16 entering November, so they held three games in hand while tied with the Leafs at 18 points.
When do the Maple Leafs play Montreal next?
The Leafs host the Canadiens at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, the third game of Toronto's six-game homestand. Montreal won the season opener between the teams 3-2 in Toronto on Sept. 29.
